Northern Wisconsin Weather

1 Jan 2012 snow storm follow-up

2012-01-04T21:15:00.004-06:00

I'm usually supportive of the National Weather Service, but lately I'm feeling a little disappointed. The NWS Office in Duluth often follows a snow event with a list of reports, often accompanied by a contoured map showing who received how much snow. It's also helpful in seeing how the forecast verified with reality.

Following the storm on Jan 1st, I did not find a finalized list, nor any map. In fact, the NWS in Duluth was mute. The neighboring office in Green Bay was no better (they cover some 'northwoods' counties in my area - Vilas, Oneida).

So, I did it myself from a combination of trained spotter, CoCoRaHS, and Coop reports. I'm sure more reports were sent to NWS Duluth but not listed online, I know my final storm report is nowhere to be seen. I apologize for the holes, but this map is the best I could come up with ((disappointed)).

The highest totals reported seem to be in the Penokee Range, 12 inches in Gile, and 10 inches in Montreal. These amounts match the pre-storm forecast perfectly.

Everyone else didn't quite make the forecast totals of 5 to 8 inches. There seems to be a wide swath of 3 to 5 inches, with Glidden reporting a localized 7 inches.

There were no reports from the hills of the Bayfield Peninsula away from the Lake, so I'm not sure how the forecast verified there.

Remote sensing from NOHRSC didn't pick up on a deep snow pack on the peninsula, but near large bodies of water it seems to under-estimate snow amounts.

And from modeled snow depth at 20:00 (local time) on January 2nd, it's really easy to see the Penokee and Gogebic Ranges. The estimate by satellite is over 20 inches on the highest peaks, which might be a little over-done, but then again, it might be pretty accurate.

After the storm I had 4.3 inches in Ashland, but now after a couple days of settling and sublimating (I measured a dew point of -5 yesterday morning), I measured 3.2 inches at my location this morning.

And then cold temperatures followed. With a fresh snow pack and some clear skies, radiational cooling, combined with some arctic air, allowed inland temperatures to plummet into the negative teens. Exeland (southern Sawyer County) reported -15 at 07:00. Many places in the high terrain and northern highland were well below zero too.

In the city of Ashland, I had -0.1, so it was my first night below zero. I count myself lucky that it wasn't colder, and that the wind was calm so there wasn't a windchill.

More confidence in Jan 1st winter storm

2011-12-31T10:24:00.000-06:00

Some of the models are coming in to better agreement, enough so that the local Weather Service Offices upgraded the previous watches, and added warnings and advisories.

The exact location of the heaviest snow is still unknown, a small deviation in the low pressure can swing the heaviest snow band one direction or the other. So, as snow gets closer, the forecast will be fine-tuned.

Far western Lake Superior is under a Gale Warning, with wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph, with waves of 6 to 10 feet.

In the more open waters of Lake Superior Storm Warning has been posted, winds of 44 mph with gusts of 56 mph are forecast. Waves between 17 and 25 feet are expected from the strong NW winds.

As of this morning, it looks like most of far northern Wisconsin will see up to 8" of snow.

As the low pressure moves away on Sunday afternoon, winds will strengthen from the northwest, allowing lake-effect snow to move across the Bayfield Peninsula and Penokee and Gogebic Ranges.

With the snow from the storm system, combined with lake-effect snow, the higher terrain may likely see some totals over a foot.

Forecasting exact snow amounts and locations is difficult, so the National Weather Service offices will be monitoring the situation and make changes as needed. The wind and the snow will likely make US-2, Hwys 13, 51, 53, and 63 difficult to drive on.

Winds along the South Shore will begin to pick up Sunday morning, with gusts of 35 mph throughout Sunday and Sunday night. It won't be until Monday morning that the winds begin to subside.

I took a screenshot of the forecast winds at 16:00 on Sunday, 1/1/2012.

A couple things stick out... Des Moines Weather Service seems to be forecasting higher winds than their neighboring counterparts, while Duluth Weather Service & Marquette Weather Service are under-forecasting the winds compared to their neighboring offices.

Regardless, wind gusts between 35 and 40 mph are likely across the entire region during this storm. These winds will make any snow blow and drift, compounding the difficulty of the storm.

Winter Storm possible for the New Year

2011-12-30T17:46:00.003-06:00

The National Weather Service in Duluth has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the lakeshore counties of Wisconsin starting late Saturday night.

Farther east, the National Weather Service in Marquette has issued a Blizzard Watch for the same timeframe.

A Winter Storm Watch means:

"THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL AND COMMERCE."

The Watch can be upgraded to a Warning (meaning that a winter storm is imminent), downgraded to an Advisory (snow will be likely but should not be too serious), or the Watch can be canceled if severe weather is no longer expected for the area.

The exact location of the heaviest snow is not yet known, but the high terrain of the Bayfield Peninsula may receive up to 6 inches, with more possible in the Penokee Range of Ashland and Iron counties. Lower elevations and areas near Lake Superior will see less.

Wind may also be an issue, starting to increase New Year's Eve from the northwest, reaching up to 20 mph by Sunday afternoon. Gusts of 30 mph are possible with even higher winds over the Apostle Islands, eastern in the Upper Peninsula, and the open waters of the Lake.

Even without heavy snow, the wind may cause blowing and drifting across roadways. Local road conditions and reported incidents are always available on the Wisconsin DOT's website (linked here), make sure "Incidents" and "Road Conditions" are checked.

First snow storm:

Dec 26th winds

2011-12-28T19:12:00.000-06:00

The National Weather Service in Duluth, MN didn't say anything about the strong winds Monday afternoon. In fact, by calling for wind gusts only up to 30 mph, they blew the forecast (pardon the pun).

I compiled a list of the highest wind gusts measured across the Northwoods and plotted them on a map (to the right).

The highest wind gust I found was 47 mph at Ashland's airport. The site has open exposure on a hill top, so naturally the open areas will feel the wind more than a location at a lower elevation or surrounded by forest and hills.

Windy enough for a Wind Advisory?

The threshold for issuing a Wind Advisory is listed as: "sustained winds are forecast between 30 and 39 miles per hour, or gusts ranging from 45 to 57 miles per hour".

For a brief period of time, the open fields south of the city of Ashland probably met Wind Advisory criteria. But it was only a couple of hours and I think the winds caught the Weather Service off guard, these wind speeds were not in the forecast and NWS Duluth didn't acknowledge the event.

New weather warning to be used: Excessive Cold Warning

2011-12-15T12:44:00.000-06:00

A year later, my new resolution is to resume posting about the weather in northern Wisconsin. And I have just the news to use in a new relaunch.

Experiment: Wind Chill Warnings will be replaced by Extreme Cold Warnings

The past criteria for windchill headlines:

Wind chill advisory: Wind chills -25º to -39º.
Wind chill warning: Wind chills -40º and colder.

At the end of last winter, new criteria will be used in Minnesota and northern Wisconsin in a trial to gauge effectiveness in communicating bitterly cold temperatures to people who work and recreate outside.

The new threshold for this winter:

Extreme Cold Warning: air temperature or wind chill value below -35º.

I like the idea of illustrating how the human body needs extra protection from bitter cold, whether there is a wind or not, and that threshold for this part of the world has been placed at -35º.

However, I can see some confusion, especially since this change doesn't seem to have been broadcast widely enough.

The bottom line reinforced by this change is that

BITTER COLD = DANGER

So keep an eye out for the new Excessive Cold Warning headline this winter!

As a reminder, here is the chart showing how the lower the temperature and the higher the winds, the less time it takes for exposed skin to freeze.

News article from the Ashland Current: Weather Service Rolls Out 'Extreme Cold Warning '

Christmas Day fatal accident on US-2

2010-12-28T21:57:00.006-06:00

In my last post on Christmas Day I mentioned a report from the W-DOT of an accident that closed both lanes of Highway US-2 east of Ashland.

I created a quick map of the accident location and temperatures in the area at the time of the accident. Lake-effect snows were impacting the high terrain of Ashland and Iron counties, but snow showers were lighter in the lower terrain along the lakeshore.

This is the article I pulled from Ashland Current:

Investigation Of Fatal Accident Continues

Article | December 27, 2010 - 10:28am | Ashland Current

[UPDATED] Investigation continues after a fatal Christmas Day accident on the Bad River Reservation in the Town of Sanborn.

A head-on automobile accident killed the drivers of two vehicles traveling in opposite directions and left a passenger with serious injuries.

Authorities reported the accident occurring at 3:23 p.m. Those killed were Courtney Greene, 22, and William Jones, 21, both of Odanah. 32-year-old Tracy Bigboy, also of Odanah, was Green’s passenger and was treated and released from a hospital.

A white Christmas across Wisconsin for 2010

2010-12-25T16:50:00.005-06:00

I grabbed an image from NOHRSC this afternoon of estimated snow depth across Wisconsin, showing that except downtown Milwaukee, the entire state should have some snow on the ground for Christmas.

Up here in the Northwoods, we always have a white Christmas, but the largest area of deep snow this Christmas is actually in western Wisconsin, from snows yesterday and this morning.

I was driving through the Penokee Range this afternoon and hit a white-out around Mellen on Highway 13.

Wisconsin DOT reports that Highway 51 in Iron County is ice covered with other highways in the region covered in snow. Around 16:00 this afternoon, US-2 east of Ashland had both lanes closed due to an accident. Roads will stay slippery tonight, drive safe!

Lake-effect snow has been streaming southward from Lake Superior this afternoon, bringing snow to the high terrain of the Bayfield Peninsula and the Penokee Range.

A total of 4-7 inches are expected from Mellen to Hurley by tomorrow morning, with 2-4 inches falling overnight.

We've been having a few flurries in Ashland, after a dusting on Christmas Eve. Highways along the lakeshore are wet but clear.

The lake-effect snows will shut off tomorrow morning as the winds switch directions and temperatures will begin to warm up. This will be the start of a warm week ahead of us, which will help the roads melt off, but may cause headaches later in the week.

Tue's eclipse and expected snow

2010-12-19T19:16:00.009-06:00

In the very early hours of Tuesday there will be a total eclipse of the moon, visible across all of North America (weather pending of course). From NASA's website on the eclipse, I've pulled this map showing parts of the globe that will not be in the eclipse's path -- the dark grey area. The lighter shades of grey denote areas that will see only a portion of the eclipse.

This graphic shows when the eclipse will start and end (for the Eastern US timezone).

For those of us in the Central Time Zone:

00:33 - eclipse begins
01:41 - total eclipse begins
02:53 - total eclipse ends
04:01 - eclipse ends

I know, that's pretty late for most of us on a school night, but it'd be easy to set your alarm for 02:00 and pop out for a moment to see the great show!

Western North America will be on the edge of a lunar eclipse next December (2011), but we won't have another full total eclipse again until 28 November 2012. This is the only chance we have in the next two years for this spectacular sight.

Having said that, the weather across the western Great Lakes doesn't look good early Tuesday morning.

A large storm system has been moving into California (and will continue to the rest of this week), with a piece of that energy sliding over the Rockies toward us. This energy will form a weak low pressure across the Plain states and bring some moisture northward.

It originally looked (a couple days ago) like the snow would stay south of us. However, recent computer model runs have nudged the forecast track northwards, so it looks more likely we'll see the snow up here.

Because the system is not in a hurry, and because there will be enough moisture in the atmosphere, possible snow totals look impressive -- the National Weather Service is forecasting between 5 and 7 inches across a large chunk of the region. Winds will be generally pretty light, so blowing snow will not be a big issue, as it was in the previous storm. Lake-enhancement will focus on the north shore of Lake Superior, so their snowfall totals may be a bit higher.

Generally, it will not be a large snowstorm, but expected snow totals are high enough that the National Weather Services in the region (who are responsible for issuing watches and warnings) have issued Winter Storm Warnings for most of the region starting Monday at 18:00 for twenty-four hours.

Looking a little further ahead, it looks like another piece of energy will come across from California in time for Christmas Eve.

Exactly how much snow it will bring is still unknown, as the parent system is still swirling off in the Pacific Ocean where there are few weather stations to sample it.

Cold air from northern Canada may head our way next weekend, something we'll have to keep an eye on.

A cool-down is in our future

2010-11-16T22:27:00.001-06:00

It looks like a cool-down is in the forecast next week. A cold pool of arctic air is currently sitting over far northern Canada and will begin to sink southward over the next nine days.

On this Unisys Weather North American temperature map I have circled the cold air (currently between 5 and -20 degrees as of this morning) and then drew in some approximate lines of the southward extent of the arctic air through time.

The cold temperatures will be pushing our way quickly, nor will the air be as cold once it reaches Lake Superior. Regardless, the models do show that this will be our first cold blast, signaling that winter is arriving.

Up here in the Northwoods, we usually have our first snowflakes just before Halloween ( October 26th this year ) and some permanent snow by Thanksgiving ( some places have a snowpack started, for some of us, we have plenty of time to wait and see ). It looks like we're off to a normal autumn after a pretty nice summer ( I plan on posting about how our multi-year drought finally broke in an upcoming post ).

Any forecast beyond five days is simply a guess, but I took the daily high and low temperatures forecast for my area from the National Weather Service and plotted the numbers.

To that, I added the extended forecast from a different site that is willing to hazard a guess.

All the computer models and variables will continue to improve as we get closer to next Monday, but after that, it looks like we're in for a cool down.

I'm feeling a little cold just looking at a forecast high temperature of 16 degrees next Thursday morning. Brrrrr.

The National Weather Service Office in Duluth, MN has finally released their final snow total map from the last snowstorm.

It looks like the upper St. Croix and the Bois Brule river valleys received the heaviest amounts. And the high terrain just northwest of Duluth received up to a foot of snow too! Some very impressive totals.

And finally, the last map I uploaded was from a screenshot taken from NOHRSC and show the approximate area covered by snow today.

Post 11/13/10 snowstorm

2010-11-15T19:07:00.012-06:00

A final map hasn't been produced yet, but preliminary numbers have been plotted and it looks like quite a large area received over 8" of snow from our first snowstorm.

As expected, the immediate lake shore along Lake Superior received only minor accumulations. Madeline Island reported 1.1" of snow, the shoreline north of Bayfield reported only 0.2", and I measured 1" in the city of Ashland.

Conversely, the highest amount in Wisconsin was measured at Hawthorne in Douglas County at 11.0". Maple came in with 10.5", which would mean a bullseye would need to drawn in central Douglas County.

Rain began on Saturday morning around 6:40 at my location and gradually turned over to snow around 10:00. There were periods of heavy snow throughout the day on Saturday, but the bulk of the snow initially melted as it touched the ground in Ashland. My first photo shows the ground beginning to turn white just before 13:00.

Temperatures rose from the low 30's early Saturday morning up to 38 degrees by the afternoon. Combined with a warm ground, the snow melted fairly quickly.

By Sunday morning, all the snow had melted, leaving only traces where I had scraped the slushy mixture off the walkway to facilitate melting and drying.

The National Weather Service and their watches and warnings matched up with the areas that were impacted the heaviest. My previous post shows the complex snow forecast for far northern Wisconsin.

The snowstorm left many vehicle accidents in its wake, but thankfully only one was fatal. Around 10:40 on Saturday morning, there was a collision on US Highway 2 in central Bayfield County that left two people dead and one in a life-threatening condition. I took a screenshot from the local Daily Press article which shows one of the vehicles in the accident.

Our low elevation along the lake shore saved us from the heaviest accumulation during this snowstorm.

I took a screenshot of my weather station's plotted data, showing temperature (blue line), dew point (green line), and barometric pressure (black line), overlay with some observation times of the precipitation.

The large dark-red horizontal line is set at the freezing point, so it's easy to see how temperatures at my location stayed warm throughout the event.

To my southwest, Derek in Polk County received more snow and has posted some pictures from his part of the State at NW Wisconsin Weather.

And finally, OSNW3 in Oshkosh has posted a radar animation of the storm system as it spun across the western Great Lakes region.

First snowstorm of 2010/11 winter

2010-11-13T13:27:00.005-06:00

A winter storm warning continues until noon tomorrow for Douglas, Bayfield, Sawyer, Washburn, and Burnett counties for between 8 and 10" of snow.

A winter weather advisory continues until noon tomorrow for Ashland, Iron, Vilas, and Price counties for 3-6" of snow in the higher terrain of the Penokee Range. Lower amounts are forecast for the lower terrain along Lake Superior.

In Ashland, rain began lightly around 06:40 and began changing over to snow around 10:00. The first snow melted on contact with the warm ground and grass, but 1" accumulated by 13:00.

Tues (5/25) severe thunderstorms

2010-05-27T21:23:00.011-05:00

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) highlighted a large portion of the western Great Lakes in a slight risk of severe weather as a weak cold front slowly drifted through the area.

Later in the afternoon, the SPC issued a mesoscale discussion (#709) that highlighted most of Wisconsin as likely to experience some strong winds and hail.

Surface dewpoints were high and there was good instability, but the shear was expected to remain weak enough to limit the severe threat.

Temperatures across the northern half of the state were in the 70s with dewpoints in the 60s. A few areas had brief sunshine which helped to boost temps and create a bit more instability.

Unfortunately, I was in a meeting all afternoon and missed most of the excitement. I was able to hear thunder and capture some radar screenshots after the storms moved out over Lake Superior, which I'll post below.

I took this screenshot from GR Level3 at 15:32 local time. Outlined in red boxes are severe thunderstorm warnings for northern Bayfield County and the Apostle Islands, central Gogebic County, and most of Ontonagon County, both in the UP of Michigan.

Hail was the primary threat from these cells as they moved northwards, with radar detecting the possibility of up to 1" in diameter hail. Also visible on this screenshot is a lake-effect breeze around the Twin Ports (Duluth/Superior) and northern Douglas County. In addition, the outflow from the storms created another visible line on radar, that moved northwest ahead of the cluster. This outflow interacted with the lake-breeze to produce cells ahead of the main cluster over Bayfield County.

Vertically Integrated Liquid (VIL) is an estimate of how much water is suspended in the storm. This is an image of the VIL as the storm cluster pushed across Chequamegon Bay and moved into the northern section of the Bayfield Peninsula. I've added my location (WBRW3) to the map for reference.

The possible hail core stayed between the city of Washburn and Maple Hill. No damage was reported from my area, but the threat was definitely there, especially considering there was hail and damage reported hours earlier from these storms.

Damage began in Marathon County and progressed northwards, through northern Wisconsin and the UP, survived across Lake Superior, and moved through the Arrowhead of MN before reaching the Canadian border.

The list I put together is actually from north-to-south, which is the opposite of chronological order. So read it from the bottom, up :)

Trees and power lines down were the worst reports, but hail up to 1" in diameter also pounded certain regions. This was the first severe thunderstorm warning for Maple Hill (WBRW3), and with some luck, we'll have more excitement throughout the summer!

Snow in the middle of May!

2010-05-08T08:08:00.018-05:00

I'll have to admit that I really didn't expect this snowfall to actually happen. Yeah, it showed up in the models since last week, and the HPC highlighted the Western Great Lakes, but after all this warm weather?

The last time I had snow on the ground was March 21st, forty-nine days ago. I was hoping we were finished with winter.

The NWS forecast a swath of snow across Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. This image is a screenshot I grabbed from the NWS Office in Duluth on the 7th (Friday). Winter Weather Advisories were issued Friday afternoon for the areas that were forecast to receive the heaviest snowfall.

While the ground and roadways were above freezing, roadways were reported as "slippery" overnight.

From Intellicast.com I grabbed a screenshot of the regional radar last night at 21:00 CDT.

The color they use to denote snow (blue) and mixed precipitation (pink) is not always accurate. Snow began falling eight hours earlier across northern Wisconsin, while this image shows the snow is only beginning.

This demonstrates how important ground truthing really is. Observations from webcams, automatic weather stations at airports, and spotters provide invaluable information from what is actually happening at ground level (not thousands of feet up in the atmosphere).

As of this writing on Saturday morning, the highest snowfall report in Wisconsin comes in from the high terrain of the snowbelt (go figure).

Gile in Iron county reports 6 inches of snow on elevated surfaces (colder than the warmer ground) and 4 inches on grassy surfaces. Other reports have come in from around the region, as far south as Portage and Waupaca counties.

The highest total in the region, so far, is Baraga County in the UP of Michigan at 7.6 inches total. A Winter Storm Warning was issued for a central portion of the UP overnight. Lake Superior seems to have added some moisture to the system.

I found 1.2 inches of snow on my elevated snowboard this morning. A little less than 1 inch accumulated on the grass.

The rain from yesterday, combined with the snow, produced 0.40" of liquid precipitation in the last twenty-four hours. It's been a very long time since we've received that much liquid in one day.

Looking back over the last few years, Maple Hill on the Bayfield Peninsula usually sees winter's last snowflakes the third week of April.

Records go back much farther in Duluth, MN.

10 May 1902, Duluth recorded 5.5 inches of snow.
8 May 1924, Duluth recorded 5 inches.
27 May 1932, Duluth recorded 2 inches.

There are eleven reports of measurable snow in May at Duluth, since 1902.

First t-storm of 2010, and finally some rain!

2010-05-01T09:29:00.011-05:00

The first thunderstorm of 2010 rolled across the Bayfield Peninsula at 2:00 a.m. early this morning. Radar detected a possibility of pea-sized hail as it passed over my house, but I'll have to admit that I simply listened to the storm in bed (after unplugging a few electronics).

Unfortunately, the storm only brought 0.08" of rain to my gauge, bringing my twenty-four hour total to only 0.16". This is a far cry short of the half-inch we were all hoping for. However, this is the most rain I've seen since March 12th (0.35").

The drought across northern Wisconsin continues, expanding last Thursday (the day each week when the new map/data is published). The severe drought (darker orange) has increased north and east, while moderate drought (light orange) and abnormally dry conditions (yellow) have moved south.

This map, and maps of the US and other States can be found on the US Drought Monitor's website.

Due to adequate snow melt last month, soil moisture has been adequate so far this spring.

As the multi-year drought is seemingly returning this spring, we'll begin to experience more problems if we do not receive our average precipitation. Rivers, streams, and inland lakes are all seeing levels drop. The Big Lake is fine so far, but it's recovery will likely be stalled. Agricultural impacts will be the largest threat as farmers begin to prepare their fields for planting.

After having an average amount of snowfall this winter (about 87" of total snow), the spring has been dry.

Snow melt actually occurred about one month earlier this year (2010) than last year. Because the melt occurred so early and quickly, the water ended up as run-off instead of soaking into the frozen ground.

This graph shows the cumulative precipitation from the last four years, compared to average (the smooth black line). It appears that 2010 (the blue line) has plateaued and is creeping closer and closer to 2007's red line. 2007 was the worst year of the drought, so far. We're all hoping that an end to the El Nino will bring precipitation before the summer months.

April 2010 Fire Danger

2010-04-17T23:26:00.009-05:00

It's been almost a year since my last post, and again the topic of concern is the area's fire danger. Wisconsin DNR set danger levels at Very High and Extreme across most of the state today, with the NWS issuing Red Flag Warnings is certain areas of the state.

I have not seen nor heard of any large fires in the region today, although there is word of a fire in the eastern side of the Cheq-Nic National Forest (so someplace around Forest or Oconto counties). Green Bay TV news doesn't seem to have any fire related reports this evening.

The fortunate news is that the winds will die down this evening; the unfortunate news is that it looks like the dry weather will continue into the foreseeable future. I checked out the 18z GFS model run this evening. All the precipitation will likely stay south of the western Great Lakes through at least the 24th of April, and even then, looking that far ahead is only a guess.

Following the fire danger is the continuing drought. The US Drought Monitor has increased the area of "severe" drought across northern Wisconsin, stretching from Washburn county eastward to Vilas and Oneida counties. "Moderate" drought continues to expand across the rest of far northern Wisconsin and abnormally dry conditions (the yellow shading) are creeping southward.

The growing season has not commenced in far northern Wisconsin, but this will become an agricultural problem if we do not receive adequate rainfall within the next month. In the meantime, river and lake levels continue to fall, while vegetation slowly begins to green up.

Freeze Warnings for Sunday morning, wildfires last week.

2009-05-29T18:15:00.014-05:00

Freezing temps likely Sunday Morning!

This afternoon National Weather Service offices in Duluth, Marquette, and Green Bay have issued a Freeze Warning for early Sunday morning (5.31.09).

High pressure, located over the Yukon this afternoon (Friday) will rotate down into the Dakotas by Saturday and the Western Great Lakes by Sunday. This dome of high pressure will bring very dry air and calm winds.

Dry air cannot hold as much heat as moist air, so there is a period of several hours that temperatures may fall below freezing.

High temps, high wind, high flames! 5.20.09.

There were several fires reported across northern Wisconsin last Wednesday during a very hot and windy day. Most fires were easily traced to downed power lines by trees and branches breaking in the high gusts.

The biggest fire was called the Blockhouse Fire (pictured above and below) because of its close proximity to Blockhouse Lake east of Park Falls, WI -- not too far from my old stomping grounds. The fire ended up totaling 112 acres with several houses lost, one was a permanent residence, but firefighters were able to save a dozen other houses from the flames.

Other fires started in Bayfield (13 acres burned), Ashland, Iron (five fires and one barn), and Vilas counties (45 acres), and20 acres outside of Rhinelander in Ondeida County.

Stories about the fires from several local newspapers:

Ashland Daily Press
The Lakeland Times
Park Falls Herald

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
Fire Department Network News

Hot + Dry+ Windy = Excellent Fire Conditions!

While the temperature at most weather stations across the north hit 90 degrees, the air was very dry too. The dewpoint at Ashland was 43 degrees in the afternoon, with a relative humidity of 19% !!

I put wind speed and temperature data from Ashland's airport into a graph (to the right). The highest recorded wind gust was 52 mph, one of the highest in the region.

Hummingbirds return to snowflakes.

2009-05-17T07:56:00.008-05:00

Hummingbirds returned to Maple Hill on May 10th.

Last Sunday we spotted the first hummer buzzing around the house, looking for the feeder he remembered from last year. The plan this year is to put a feeder on opposite sides of the house, increasing the likelihood that a male will claim each feeder without fighting.

Map of first reports this year.

I thought it might be a little early for the hummingbirds to be this far north, so I headed over to hummingbirds.net to find out.

Nope, it turns out that the first report (map to the left) of a hummingbird in my area was submitted five days earlier (5.5.09).

Either way, I'm thrilled to have the little guys back!! And now, in the following days, a female has been showing up at the feeder too.

Snowflakes still being reported across parts of northern Wisconsin.

Three locations reported a trace of snow last Saturday, which shows up as a 'T' in this 7:00 report from COOP observers (to the right).

* Butternut, Ashland County.
* Clam Lake (4 mi W), Bayfield County.
* Madeline Island, Ashland County.

Then, two more locations reported snowflakes this last Friday, listed in this report from 7:00 Saturday morning from COOP observers (to the right).

* Butternut, Ashland County.
* Sarona, Washburn County.

In addition, I saw snowflakes at two locations in northern Bayfield County, but was unable to submit a COOP report in time for this report. I had snowflakes at my house on Maple Hill at 6:00 and then again at 6:30 at Mawikwe Beach along Lake Superior.

Freeze warnings last night.

Cold overnight temperatures continue, as a very large portion of Wisconsin had Frost Advisories or Freeze Warnings early this morning.

From MesoWest, I grabbed a map (to the left) that shows minimum temperatures since midnight. On top of this map, I drew in a line between temperatures below & above freezing.

Interior sections away from Lake Superior fell as low as 25 degrees, but certain areas managed to stay above freezing. Here on the Bayfield Peninsula, the temperatures were warmed by Lake Superior... my low temperature was 35 degrees.

Lake-effect cold, Spring, and stormy.

2009-04-24T18:37:00.015-05:00

After a warm start yesterday, the Lake kept nearby areas cold, while clouds kept temps down over Eastern Wisconsin.

I grabbed a screenshot (to the left) from my GRlevel3 at 17:40 (5.40p) yesterday (4.23.09) that shows observed temperatures and wind barbs. On top of this map I drew in contours of 50, 60, 70, and 80 degrees. I went a little crazy and did an 85 and a 90 degree contour also :)

At a higher elevation and with a southern wind, I was able to maintain a warmer temperature .

A sure sign of spring!

Derek in Polk County (NW Wisconsin Weather Blog) has been noticing that daffodils at his location are beginning to bloom. This matches the yellow I'm beginning to see in my front yard. Yesterday I snapped this photo (to the right) of the first daffodils that are opening.

OSNW3 asked about The Last Day of Winter. Yep, that day has come and gone and I missed it. If I'm lucky, I'll be able to sit down and pinpoint the day before the weekend is over.

First T-storm of season moved over Maple Hill this morning!!

I awoke around 4:00 this morning to the sound of thunder and my lightning sensor clicking.

After hail SW of Duluth the previous evening, a lone thunderstorm cell kept moving northeast across northern Wisconsin and the Bayfield Peninsula. I was lucky enough to have the cell pass directly overhead.

I grabbed this screenshot (to the left) from my GRlevel3 at 4:10 this morning. The greatest reflectivity on this base scan was 48 dBz, a pretty respectable strength!

NWS Duluth issued a Special Weather Statement concerning this lone cell at 4:05 this morning. I took a screenshot of the statement (to the right), that highlighted possible gusty winds and a brief heavy downpour.

Unfortunately, it produced only a trace of precipitation at my house... no heavy downpours. We could use more rain to help speed the green-up along.

Strong and Severe Thunderstorms this evening across WI.

I grabbed two screenshots (to the left) from AccuWeather.com from around 20:40. The view on the left shows possible snow north of Duluth, while the right image shows the blossoming cloud tops associated with deeper convection.

Addendum - 4.25.09 (Sat) @ 8:30: Storm Reports.

Again from my GRlevel3, I pulled the image of storm reports (to the right) this morning from across Wisconsin, from yesterday (Fri) evening and overnight.

The blue dots in a green bubble show locations where hail was reported, most were 0.5" or 0.88" (nickel-size), but there were a few around the Sparta area that report 1" hail (this is the new criteria for a Severe Thunderstorm).

The orange bubbles of a lightning bolt and anemometer show reports of thunderstorm wind damage. Trees were down on powerlines south of Park Falls and trees down near Fifield, both in Price County. Merrill in Lincoln County had pine branches down, and a tree fell on a house in Marathon County. The winner seems to be up in the Keewanaw Peninsula in the UP, where the city of Laruim was without power due to trees across powerlines.

And I can't leave out that there was 1" of snow reported northwest of Duluth. Apparently, the snow just will not quit!! As a side note, NWS Duluth is hinting that we may have one more shot at snow in the next seven days.

Snow returned to WI on April 20th!

2009-04-22T21:20:00.009-05:00

I put together a map showing the reported snowfall totals, and a picture of my deck covered in white!

But first, as an addendum, I forgot that I wanted to link to OSNW3's radar loop from the storm. All his observations from Oshkosh, with pictures and more radar loops can be found on his observation page (here).

OSNW3 broke the radar loops up into each day, I picked the day (above) when the majority of the snow hit the region.

Snowfall map.

Since it seems the surrounding NWS Offices did not put together post-storm snowfall maps, I went through the storm reports and created this map (to the left).

The highest total I found in Wisconsin was in northern Iron County at Gile... 17" total.

There were much higher totals in the UP of Michigan, the highest I found in the western UP was in central Baraga County... with 29" total.

I spent much of Monday outside of Ashland in Ashland County, where all the precipitation fell as rain, while only a few miles east in the higher terrain there was heavy snow. Elevation and proximity to lake-enhanced moisture created some very heavy snows across part of the region!!

Snow on my deck on the Bayfield Peninsula.

All the heavy snow stayed 40 miles E and SE of my location, I did see more snow at my house... only 0.5" inches. The rest of the precipitation fell as rain, albeit a chilly rain with temperatures in the mid-30's.

I took a picture (to the right) of my deck covered in snow on Monday evening.

I measured a total of 0.73" of liquid from three days, most of which was rain.

First & Last snow dates this winter.

The first snowflake fell on Maple Hill October 27th, 2008. Assuming that no more snow will fall this spring, the last snowflake fell on Maple Hill April 21st, 2009.

This is a duration of 176 days, which is 18 days longer than last winter (158 days).

Cold around Lk Sup on Sat., rain/snow on Sun.

2009-04-19T18:11:00.010-05:00

As winds turned northeast on Saturday, the big Lake kept the lakeshore counties cold. Rain and snow moved in on Sunday and will continue through Monday.

I grabbed this map (to the right) from GRlevel3, which shows temperatures and wind barbs at 18:15 (6.15p) on Saturday evening.

On top of the map I drew in 10-degree temperature contours, with labels.

The counties bordering Lake Superior stayed in the 30's and 40's most of the day, while much further inland the temperatures were in the lower 70's. Quite a contrast!!

While the Lake is now ice-free (except for many stray icebergs), the water is only a few degrees above freezing. (The current map of water temperatures can be found here). This cold water will occasionally modify my weather throughout May, June, and sometimes even into July.

A low pressure system brings needed moisture to the region.

Fire danger began increasing last week from dry weather and a slow green-up this spring. Current statewide fire danger can be found (here) from WDNR.

Luckily, rain showers will blanket the region today and tomorrow, soaking the ground and reducing the fire danger.

I captured a radar image of Minnesota and Wisconsin (to the right) from Intellicast.com at 16:30. The radar image shows the possibility of snow around the western tip of Lake Superior, with rain showers elsewhere.

As I type this at 18:25, the rain today (0.27") has turned to moderate snow; the snow is starting to turn the ground white (trace). The temperature has been steady today in the mid-30's and is beginning to edge down toward freezing, I have 33.2 degrees currently.

Some accumulating snow across the Northwoods tonight!!

The National Weather Service in Duluth has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for portions of Minnesota's Arrowhead and north-central Wisconsin.

In addition, NWS Marquette has issued similar advisories for a large portion of the UP of Michigan.

This map (to the right) shows the locations that can expect to see measurable snowfall, and where the advisories are in place.

Luckily, the snow should mostly melt on contact with roadways and concrete surfaces, but may begin to accumulate on grassy and cold surfaces.

A look at the snow :)

So, I thought I'd grab a picture of the trees and ground turning white. This picture (to the left) was taken around 19:00 and is looking west into my backyard.

Comparing dates.

Last winter, the first snowflakes fell on November 7th; the last snowflakes fell on April 12th. There were 158 days between the two dates.

This winter, the first snowflakes fell on October 27th. If tomorrow is the last date of snowflakes this winter, we will have had 175 days... 17 days longer this year!!!

More animals, fire danger, and more snow!

2009-04-18T06:52:00.007-05:00

Lions and tigers and bears!

Since I've been posting pictures of some wildlife, I passed a bear and her cubs on the side of the road in northern Minnesota yesterday.

It was late in the afternoon between Nett Lake and Orr on County 23 when I saw a large black shape ahead on the road's edge. I slowed down, but once I realized it was a mother and cubs, I didn't want to slow down too much and piss her off. The last thing I wanted was an angry mom rushing my car!

I snapped this photo (to the right) as I was coasting past, so it turned out a little less clear than I was hoping.

From Black to White.

It looks possible that the beginning of this next week will be damp across the Lake Superior region. We desperately need precipitation, as all of Wisconsin is currently under Very High Fire Danger, which has prompted bans on all burning until the danger level drops (more on this below).

This map (to the left) is from the HPC and shows the probability of 4" (or more) of snow on Day 2 (Sunday and Sunday night). Northern Wisconsin is located in a 40-70% likelihood of at least 4" of snow. We'll have to watch this storm system as it approaches throughout the weekend.

NWS Duluth's Discussion on the possible snowfall.

Here's a snippet from this morning's discussion (03:38 local time), where the forecaster is looking towards Sunday and Monday's snow chances:

A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... MAINLY IN OUR
EASTERN ZONES INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE ARROWHEAD.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TIMES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A HEADLINE FOR SNOWFALL... BUT
IT`S TOO EARLY TO ISSUE.

"Headline for snowfall" means a possible winter advisory or winter weather watch, meaning that certain criteria may be reached. This only means that someone may see more than an inch or two of snow.

Statewide Fire Danger.

With most of our snow melted and gone, and a very dry period the last two weeks, fire danger has increased from the dry air and brown grass.

This map (to the right) is from Wisconsin DNR and is constantly updated throughout the day.

As of 7:00 this morning, the entire state is under a Very High Fire Danger, with bans on burning in all DNR administered counties.

This elevated fire danger region is also the area affected by a severe drought, so either way, precipitation is needed. The current drought map can be viewed (here) from the US Drought Monitor, and is updated every Thursday.

Until the fire danger level drops, please be cautious with cigarettes, burning barrels, and campfires!!!

Fox pictures

2009-04-15T19:51:00.006-05:00

Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes)

While I haven't had any recent trail cam photos of the coyote pack hanging around the house, I have seen the fox twice in the last month.

The first was on the trail cam from March 10th, with a time stamp of 19:18 (to the right).

The morning after this photo I measured 5.3" of snow at 7:00. It looks like the fox was out searching for food before hunkering down during the storm.

April 5th.

I was looking out the window on a Sunday morning and spotted a fox running across the snow from the woods to the house.

After running for the camera, I found the fox below the bird feeder off the edge of the deck.

With the railing blocking my view, this was the first shot I got (to the left). I think the fox was chasing the squirrels up the tree.

I took the following two shots as the fox gave up and continued running across the yard (to the right & below).

All the other photographed animals.

And as a reminder, I wrote a post with all the animals that my trail cam captured next to my house, which can be found (here).

Last storm recap & pics of my snowpack.

2009-04-10T08:12:00.004-05:00

Sunny this last week, and sunny the next!

Yesterday I snapped two photos of my yard on Maple Hill. Not only are there Maple Trees in my yard, but the entire 2 square mile hill is aptly named.

This first picture (to the right) is my front yard, Red and Sugar Maples in the front, with Basswood, Spruce, Oak, and Hemlock behind.

This winter I have measured 85.3" of total snow. This is 5" less that last winter.

This second picture (to the left) is looking at the front of the house.

My weather station is on the right, mounted on a pole. Snowbanks from the deck are still visible as large heaps of white on the right of the deck steps.

As of this morning, at 7:00, I have 11.4" of snow still remaining on the ground. With more sunshine, this snow will continue to rapidly melt.

Most locations at lower elevations are already snow-free, while the higher elevations of the Bayfield Peninsula still have plenty of snow.

Snow totals from the last snowstorm -- April 1st.

I'm very late in posting a follow-up of the last snowstorm to impact the region, ten days ago. This was also the last time I measured any precipitation, so we've entered a dry spell.

Locations north and west of Duluth received heavy snow, while northern Wisconsin received either all rain or snow-rain-snow.

I measured 3.9" of snow and over 0.5" of rain. My rain amount is only a guess because it is hard for me to separate the rainfall from the water equivalent of the snowfall. Either way, it was a wet storm.

It was that snow and water that has allowed my snowpack to turn into a solid layer of icy snow that is having a tough time melting.

Winter Storm Watch & Warning for northern WI

2009-03-29T18:42:00.009-05:00

Graphics Updated: 6:55 3.30.09

A strong low pressure system currently over the Pacific Northwest will move our way the first half of this week, bringing a swath of heavy snow to the western Great Lakes region.

After a partly sunny day on Saturday, and blue skies on Sunday, the nice weather will hold on one more day for Monday, before going downhill on Tuesday.

The NWS Offices in Duluth and Minneapolis have begun changing some of their Winter Storm Watches to into Warnings, in places where there is high confidence that snow totals will reach over six inches. In other places, exact storm totals are more questionable until we get closer to Tuesday.

This warning map (above) is from MichiganWxSystem.com and shows the watches and warnings for northern Wisconsin. The storm will arrive on Tuesday and last into Wednesday.

How much is expected?

We still have two days until the snow starts (Tuesday afternoon), so the amounts might be tweaked once we get closer to the start of the storm.

In the meantime, this graphic (to the left) shows where NWS Duluth believes the heaviest snow will fall.

Rain may mix into northern Wisconsin and therefore reduce the snow amounts, where less than 6" is possible.

Along the north shore of Lake Superior, Duluth, and points westward through Grand Rapids and Brainerd may see up to 12".

My front yard on Maple Hill.

This morning, for CoCoRaHS and my report to the NWS, I measured 14.0" of snow still on the ground, with only a trace of lake-effect snow from yesterday.

This afternoon (Sunday), I took a picture from the front deck (to the right).

In the center of the shot is my weather station on a pole, behind that is the green snow gauge, and off to the right is my snow board.

I'm not sure what I'll do for the 'end of winter' photo series this year. Last year I made a snowman from a snowstorm on April 11th (10" of new snow!) and took a photo each day until the snowman disappeared. I called the project "The Death of Frosty", it can be viewed (here).

March 9-11th snowstorm and ice shove pics.

2009-03-19T20:39:00.013-05:00

I've fallen even further behind on posts, too busy. However, I did want to briefly talk about the last snowstorm we had across the Northwoods, March 9th, 10th, 11th. With the way the weather is acting, it may be the last large snow of the season. It is still possible we'll get more snow, but the 540 dm (a guidance on the rain/snow demarcation) line keeps hanging around the Canadian border.

NWS Duluth released a map (to the right) of the snow totals across their county warning area (CWA).

The low pressure system was forecast by the models to move more slowly than it did, a perhaps a little further east. This would have brought the heaviest snow to the north shore of Lake Superior.

As it turned out, the low pushed off a little quicker and the heaviest snow fell around the International Falls area.

A few sections of northern Wisconsin still managed to measure over 6 inches of snow, north of Bayfield received 8 inches and Ironwood/Hurley also reached above 8 inches.

I measured 5.3 inches one day and 0.7 inches the next, giving me 6.0 inches total. The snow wasn't the only event, winds were quite strong too.

As promised, some ice shove pictures.

First, all credit for these goes to Mr. Couture. While I was present, I couldn't have gotten these pictures without him. Thanks!!!

I first estimated the height to be near 50 feet, I think I'd have to say closer to 30 feet now that I reviewed the pictures. Regardless, the ridge of ice is HUGE!!

This first shot (to the left) is from the bank above the beach, looking NW.

This second photo (to the right) is a bit closer to the ridge, looking a little more west than the first photo. The marks in the snow on the bottom are actually boot prints from other people who came to climb the ice.

And the last picture (to the left) is taken from the top of the ridge looking along the shoreline.

Off in the distance you can see two jagged points of ice sticking straight up in the air.

Current snow depth across Wisconsin.

The snow has been melting across the region this past week, but there are still pockets of deeper snow and remnant piles in the woods and rural areas. In the entire state, I seem to have the most snow still on the ground, northern Vilas and Iron counties aren't too far behind me.

Meanwhile, the UP of Michican is still nicely covered with white stuff. Cooler temperatures, a partially ice-covered Lake Superior, and overall high snowfall this winter has created a longer-lasting snowpack across the UP.

This map (to the left) comes from John Dee and shows reported snow depth from yesterday morning.

The 17" in Bayfield County is my report.

So far this winter I have measured 78.8 inches of total snow.

The last snowfall last year at my location fell on April 14th, with a final total of over 90 inches.

Addendum: 3.20.09.

This afternoon I snapped two photos of the front yard, as it was snowing.

This first one (to the right) is my snow gauge. As previously mentioned, the snow drifts around it, providing for a lower reading than elsewhere in my yard. I believe OSNW3 mentioned he noticed a similar effect with his snow gauge.

This morning I reported 16.5" of snow on the ground. The gauge shows about 14".

This second picture (to the left) is my front yard this afternoon. Snow flurries are expected throughout the day, but accumulations will be minor.

The green snow gauge can be seen towards the back of the picture, the weather station is on the pole, and my snowboard is to the right of the weather station.

Winter Storm Warnings: 10+" possible!

2009-03-09T20:16:00.004-05:00

Not too much time to post tonight, but with a major winter storm on my doorstep this is worth posting about.

The NWS offices in Duluth & Minneapolis have begun issuing Winter Storm Warnings for northern Minnesota and far northern Wisconsin.

This graphic (to the right) shows the weather story from NWS Duluth, with expected snowfall totals by Wednesday evening.

It looks like the south shore will reach the 10" mark with lower amounts farther south. Freezing rain and sleet will be the first precipitation before turning over to all snow.

In addition, strong winds will blow across Lake Superior from the north. The forecast calls for wind gusts up into the 30s for the lower terrain and higher gusts at higher elevations. Besides creating horizontal snowfall and whiteout conditions, the winds will also push the ice floes on the big Lake up against the south shore's shoreline.

When storms like this occur in past years, this is when ice shoves threaten to close US2 in Superior and Ashland.

Regardless, all highways will quickly become snow-covered throughout the day on Tuesday. The latest road conditions from the State Patrol are constantly updated on the Wisconsin DOT's website (here). Road conditions as well as any accidents and closures are also posted.

Rainy across S.WI today, beautiful sunshine in the north.

2009-03-07T18:46:00.002-06:00

A low pressure system moving through Iowa and Illinois today brought rain to the southern quarter of the state, the section of the state that doesn't really need more precipitation.

While the rain has continued to fall most of the day, the rain shield didn't reach very far north. Eastern and central Wisconsin have been plagued with clouds from the low pressure, but the northwestern third of the state had blue skies and sunshine!

I captured this radar image (to the right) from KMKE in Milwaukee at 13:57 this afternoon. It shows the rain across the lower three tiers of counties.

I drew in a yellow line on the satellite image between the clear skies to the north and the clouds in the south.

Temperatures reached above freezing for all of Wisconsin today, the 32 degree line is barely visible across part of the UP of Michigan and the Arrowhead of Minnesota.

Mt. lion confirmed in WI, my Feb precip summary.

2009-03-06T10:42:00.011-06:00

For decades there have been sightings of mountain lions in Wisconsin, from across the state. In fact, one that roamed eastward from the Dakotas was actually killed outside of Chicago last January.

Finally, there is proof. Last week DNR Biologists were contacted with a report of a treed cougar. While they were not able to capture it, a few photographs (one to the right) were taken. It is hoped that the animal will be temporarily captured to obtain a DNA test and fit the animal with a radio collar.

Mountain lions were native to Wisconsin, but were eliminated shortly after 1900. This is part of their native range and habitat, and do belong here as part of the natural ecosystem.

This article is running on the two TV stations in Duluth:

WDIO (ABC) - Confirmed Cougar Sighting West of Spooner

Northland's NewsCenter (CBS/NBC) - Cougar Spotted In Spooner

The official announcement was released by the Wisconsin DNR (WDNR) and can be found (here).

A good source of information concerning mountain lions, with pictures, can be found on the UW - Stevens Point website (here). They also mention the historical range of cougars in Wisconsin:

Prior to 1870 the mountain lion occurred throughout most of the state, especially in valleys and tributaries of the Mississippi and Fox River (Jackson 1961). Most of the records came from areas around Lake Winnebago and from valleys of the Chippewa and St. Croix Rivers (Schorger 1982).

February was wet on Maple Hill.

Liquid precipitation added up to 147% of average, at 1.12".

Snow totaled 14.7" in February, surpassing last February by almost four inches.

After a dry fall across most of Wisconsin (see my previous post), I will gladly take any extra moisture. With some luck this spring, we'll have a healthy snow melt and adequate precipitation to keep us from slipping further into drought conditions.

My snow numbers by the month.

This graph (to the right) shows monthly snow totals from last winter (light blue) with totals from this winter.

December has been the snowiest month both years, with this past December having the highest monthly total of any month.

After a lull around February, the end of April tends to be a snowy month too.

Daily snow depth and total accumulations.

Again, I've taken data from this winter and put it into a graph (to the left) with last winter's data.

The blue lines show total snow accumulation, the dash line is last winter.

The redish lines show daily measured snow depth, the dash line is last winter's numbers.

Monthly liquid numbers.

There have been some interesting patters emerging as I continue taking precipitation measurements here on Maple Hill.

January and February are climatologically dry months across Wisconsin. The dry and cold air does not provide efficient conditions for heavy snowfall.

Otherwise, the summer months should be the wettest of the year.

I've taken the average monthly precipitation numbers from the nearest climatological reporting station (10 miles south) and graphed that information as a black line (above).

On top of that I have added in precipitation from 2007 (light blue), 2008 (magenta), and now 2009 (yellow).

It appears that there is a decrease in precipitation in the summer months, on Maple Hill, when climatologically there should be a peak.

As an example, I've taken two yearly precipitation graphs (to the left) from two locations representative of the western Great Lake region - Duluth and Minneapoli s - from WeatherOnline.

Both charts clearly display a peak in the months of June, July, and August; while they show December, January, and February as the driest months.

The last two years on Maple Hill have not followed this trend, instead, July and August are remarkably lower than the projected climatological peak.

The cause of this? I have no idea. It may be 'normal' for the Bayfield Peninsula. Lake Superior may influence the warm months by keeping the air chilled and stable. Or perhaps this is result of a shift in climate. I do not have enough information to lean one way or another, but I'll keep searching.

Wisconsin's drought, Superior's ice, and severe hail criteria.

2009-03-04T14:08:00.012-06:00

I have been watching the US Drought Monito r this winter and have noticed that a portion of Wisconsin has remained under the D2 category - Severe Drought.

After going back in the archives I found that the trend began on the July 1st 2008. I took each map of Wisconsin since July 1st and created an animation up to the most recent map - 24 Feb. [Thanks for the help, J!]

The US Drought Monitor uses five indicators to classify drought conditions. More information on these five indicators can be found (here).

In areas where there is snow cover, the melting of snow will lessen the drought conditions because the USGS's streamflow data is part of the assessment. However, the drought classification is also based on present soil moisture as well as recent precipitation. This would indicate that snow melt may not produce a dramatic change and that more precipitation is needed throughout the coming months to prevent the drought from expanding and becoming more severe.

At this time, the driest region is the north-central and northeast portions of the state. Already the NWS in Green Bay has issued their first spring flood outlook. The outlook indicates that because of the dry conditions there will be a minimal threat of flooding across the upper Wisconsin River valley, the Wolf River watershed, and the Green Bay watershed. While this is good news, it may be only the first real effects we see from the continuing dry conditions. With spring planting only a short time away, we may see more impacts as time progresses.

Lake Superior's ice coverage has most likely reached the maximum extent.

As I have been watching the expanding ice on Lake Superior, so has the NWS in Marquette. On March 3rd they published an article to highlight that Lake Superior may have reached the maximum ice coverage for this winter. Along with the article they included this satellite image (to the left).

Thick ice is easily seen as solid white along the south shore of Lake Superior with thinner and broken ice farther from shore.

To get a better look at how much ice has actually formed, I grabbed an image from the Canadian Ice Service's website.

This graphic (to the right) shows a detailed analysis of the ice covering the lake, broken down into sections.
Each section is classified by age, extent, and coverage.

The green areas denote the thickest ice, the purples are medium ice, and the light pink indicates the thinnest ice. The only areas of open water are two small pockets in the center of the eastern section of the Lake, with the light blue coloration.

The Ice Service also has several graphs showing recent and historical data. This graph (to the left) shows the weekly percent of ice coverage this winter (blue bars) versus average ice coverage (green line).

The week of March 5th shows that ice coverage almost reached 100%. We'll have to see what this week brings. Warmer weather and stronger winds may help to break up some of the thinner ice in the middle of the Lake, but the graph shows ice on Lake Superior lingers into May.

Severe hail size threshold change.

The Central Region of the National Weather Service will be changing the threshold definition of severe hail. This map (to the right) shows which areas will see the change -- the blue colored CWA areas.

The change will only be implemented in the Central Region as a test. If successful and positive, the change may be extended to other areas of the US later.

The previous criteria for severe hail was 3/4" diameter or greater - this is general equivalent to a penny. The new criteria will be 1" - the equivalent of a quarter - and will be fully functional by July 1st (many will do so before July).

Based on a five-year trial in Kansas, it appears that hail less than 1" does not do sufficient damage to issue warnings. Once hail approaches 1" in diameter it begins to cause physical damage and then deserves a warning. It is believed that this change will reduce the number of marginal hail warnings.Unchanged will be the wind threshold of a severe thunderstorm warning at 50 knots (50 mph).

An online video discussing this change can be viewed (here).

So far, in Wisconsin, the NWS offices in Green Bay and in Milwaukee have stated they will will implement the new threshold on April 1st. The other offices serving Wisconsin have not issued a statement concerning the change yet.

Summary of Thursday's snowstorm and cold temps.

2009-02-28T10:47:00.016-06:00

Snow totals from Thursday, arctic air settled in on the new snow Friday and Saturday.

NWS La Crosse put together a good map showing snow totals across Minnesota and Wisconsin (to the right).

The northern three-quarters of Wisconsin and all of Minnesota got in on the snow, and as always, the UP of Michigan had some blizzard conditions.

I wasn't really impressed with NWS Minneapolis's snow total map. It looks like some new computer generated map that they are trying out. It's not terrible, but they've done better in the past.

Otherwise, I'll post the maps from NWS Duluth and NWS Green Bay.

From northeast and east-central Wisconsin.

The highest totals (map) in the NWS Green Bay's forecast area (FA):

10.5" Pestigo, Marinette County
8.5" Ephraim 5 SE, Door County
7.1" Ephraim 1 NE, Door County

In addition to the snow, eastern Wisconsin heard some thunder during the snow and measured some pretty high winds (summary here).

Peak gusts:

45 mph at Green Bay, Brown Co.
44 mph at Algoma, Kewaunee Co.
43 mph at Oshkosh, Winnebago Co.
40 mph at Sturgeon Bay, Door Co.

OSNW3 has a great blog post showing the progress of the snowstorm in Oshkosh, WI. The post contains five snow measurements with photos, videos, and radar loops.

Far northern Wisconsin.

I measured 4.0" at my location, and it seems that between 4 and 5 inches fell in my area.

Lake-effect snow enhancement was a possibility with northeast winds off Lake Superior, but it wasn't a huge factor. Perhaps the air was too dry or is simply too much ice.

The Penokee Range in Ashland and Iron counties received the heaviest snow in northern Wisconsin. The higher terrain and the Lake always make this a favorable location.

The highest reports from the NWS Duluth's Wisconsin FA (map):

9.5" Gile, Iron Co.
8.0" Ironwood, Gogebic Co., MI.

Snow depth on Maple Hill.

I like to keep an eye on the snow depth gauge, but the snow seems to drift away from it too often. Based on my other snow depth measurements, the gauge under-represents average depth. Either way, I thought I'd include a picture of the gauge, just as a reference (to the left).

My recent snow depth measurements (at 7:00):

19.4" Wednesday morning
18.5" Thursday morning
22.2" Friday morning
21.6" Saturday morning

This is a view out across the deck to the northeast (to the right), in the background is the valley and the next set of hills. This is a good example of the farthest view I have from the house here on the hill.

My snow measurements after the storm:

4.0" new snow
0.46" water equivalent
9:1 snow-to-liquid ratio

22.2" snow depth
72.7" winter snow total

Arctic air followed the snow.

I liked NWS Duluth's forecast discussion from 19:13 on Friday evening (2.27.09):

AT THIS TIME THERE ARE THREE
SOURCES OF ARCTIC AIR... A
DEEP MASS OVER AND WEST OF
HUDSON BAY, A SHALLOW LAYER
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND
THE MANITOBA LAKES. BOTH ARE
CONTINENTAL ARCTIC IN NATURE.

A THIRD SOURCE OF ARCTIC AIR RESIDES OVER THE THICK, VIRTUALLY UNBROKEN, AND DEEPENING ICE
OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR... AN APPARENT MARITIME ARCTIC AIR MASS USUALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH ICE CAPS.

THE THICK ICE COVER ACTS LIKE THE BOTTOM OF THOSE FLAT VALLEYS NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE IRON RANGE. THE LOW ELEVATION OF THE LAKE CAUSES THE COLD AIR MASS TO COLLECT
THERE. THE LAST TM THE LAKE ACTED LIKE A FLOOR OF A DRY VALLEY WAS FEB AND EARLY
MAR 2003 WHEN THERE WAS AN EXTENSIVE AND DEEP ICE COVER.

So, arctic high pressure brought in cold air behind Thursday's snowstorm. In addition, Lake Superior
is acting like a collection point for cold air due to its bowl shape and thick ice coverage. As a
feedback, the ice will continue to thicken as long as the cold air is parked over the region.

I'll have a post in a few days on Lake Superior's ice cover.

Cold yesterday and overnight on
Maple Hill.

I clipped this screenshot (to the right)
from my weather station this morning. It
shows graphed temperatures (blue) and
wind chill values (purple) beginning at
midnight on Thursday morning.

Throughout the snow storm on Thursday,
temperatures fell from a high of 20.2 and
continued falling until Friday morning
when a low of -5 was reached.

Saturday morning was bright, clear, and cold with a low temperature of -11.1 at my location. Inland
areas of northern Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan reached down into the minus 20s (see map
above).

Road conditions becoming dangerous.

2009-02-26T15:08:00.003-06:00

As of 15:00, Wisconsin State Patrol is urging drivers to stay off the roads.

WI-DOT alerts can be found (here).

A map showing Wisconsin Winter Road Conditions can be found (here).

And (below) a picture of the road leading to Maple Hill this afternoon. Snow-covered and beginning to drift.

Snow and possible thundersnow.

2009-02-26T11:57:00.004-06:00

Moderate snow across the region this morning.

My lightning sensor (Stormwise LSU-2002) clicked a few times, so I had to check the radar (to the right). This image is from Wunderground.com.

One blip showed up on KDLH at 10:01 this morning just northwest of Duluth, MN.

Based on my sensor, and that a lightning signature showed up on the StrikeStar network (a network of personal Boltek Lightning Sensors), it looks like thundersnow is possible today.

In addition, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a mesoscale discussion (# 149) for a large portion of Wisconsin (pictured below).

This discussion mentions that heavy snow is beginning to develop in Minnesota and Wisconsin, with snowfall rates approaching 1" per hour in the heaviest snowbands.

Winter Storm impacting Wisconsin today.

2009-02-25T17:27:00.006-06:00

** Updated Thursday morning.

This first map (to the right) from the Hydrodmeteorlogical Prediction Center (HPC) shows the probability of snowfall over 8". The darker blue areas have a medium change (40-80%). This also means that anywhere colored in blue has a high chance of seeing at least 6" of snow.

In addition, there is uncertainty if Lake Superior will enhance snowfall along the northern tier of Wisconsin counties. Lake Superior has a high degree of ice coverage at this time, but so far that has not shut off lake-effect snow this winter.

The winds are forecast to travel southwest down a long fetch of the Lake, there is indeed a good possibility that far northern Wisconsin will see greater totals.

Warnings & Advisories.

Like last time, I took a map (to the left) that displays the NWS's warnings and advisories, on top of which I placed the NWS's forecast snow totals.

** The freezing rain threat for southeastern Wisconsin has diminished. Instead a mixture of sleet, snow, and a chance of lighter freezing rain is possible.

Other blogs to read.

Plenty is being discussed about this storm by other bloggers, so I'd rather point everyone in that direction instead of repeating what has already been said:

Tim - Duluth/Superior area
Derek - northwestern Wisconsin
Scout - southeastern Wisconsin
Dirk - northwestern Wisconsin

And always posting great post-storm summaries, OSNW3 in Oshkosh,WI is a great blog to read.

The storm begins.

I captured this screenshot (to the right) from Intellicast.com this morning at 7:45 CST.

Snow is beginning to invade the region with light freezing drizzle and freezing rain in the southern areas.

An excellent source of radar views can be found on WI-INFLOW's pages:

Northwest WI
East-central WI
West-central WI
Southwest WI
Southeast WI

Lake-effect wrap-up, and some weekend pics.

2009-02-23T10:05:00.023-06:00

Saturday and Sunday brought lake-effect snow to the south shore, the higher terrain saw over a foot.

At around 1020 feet amsl (420 ft above Lake Superior) I received only 1.3" total.

The Penokee Range of Iron and Ashland counties, which reach up to 1870 feet amsl (1270 feet above Lake Superior), is the "snow belt" of Wisconsin, and keeping with the title received over a foot of snow.

In fact, a few miles northwest of my location with an elevation increase of only 250 feet, received double the snow that I did.

I put together a quick map (above) showing where the heaviest snow was measured.

Meanwhile, southern Wisconsin dealt with its own snowstorm.

A low pressure system moved across Iowa and northern Illinois, bringing a band of heavy snow across southern Wisconsin on Saturday.

This map (to the left) was published by NWS Milwaukee and shows reported snow totals during this storm.

The highest amounts fell in Washington, Waukesha, and Ozaukee counties:

8.8" West Bend 1 N (NWS Spotter)
8.7" Waukesha 1.8 SE (CoCoRaHS observer)
8.5" Allenton (COOP observer)
8.5" Belgium 1 NW (COOP observer)

OSNW3 (COOP observer) in Oshkosh, WI reports 4" of new snow on the 20th & 21st. OSNW3's observations can be found (here). As of writing this post he has not yet updated his blog, but I'm sure he will very soon.

American Birkebeiner 2009.

This weekend was the running of the 36th annual race (website) with about 9,500 participants from all around the world (e.g. Germany, Russia, Slovakia, Canada, Mexico, Norway, Switzerland, France, Czech Rep, Sweden, Slovenia, Italy, Spain, etc.).

The American Birkebeiner is a race with origins 800 years ago in Norway. More of the history can be found (Birkie.com: here) or (Wikipedia: here).

I only spent an hour at the finish line, but I did see the winners of both the Men's and the Women's Birkie Marathon cross the line.

Winners:

Men's Birkie Freestyle 50k (31mi)...
Matthew Liebsch, 2 hr 11 min
Maple Grove, MN, USA

Women's Birkie Freestyle...
Rebecca Dussault, 2 hr 26 min
Gunnison, CO, USA

Men's Birkie Classic...
Gus Kaeding, 3 hr
Marquette, MI, USA

Women's Birkie Classic...
Martina Stursova, 3 hr 26 min
Policka, Czech Republic

Men's Kortelopet Freestyle 23k (14 mi)...
Spencer Lacy, 1 hr 3 min
Boulder, CO, USA

Women's Kortelopet Freestyle...
Jessie Higgins, 1 hr 10 min
Afton, MN, USA Men's

Kortelopet Classic...
Grant Cook, 1 hr 15 min
Duluth, MN, USA

Women's Kortelopet Classic...
Anne Hart, 1 hr 31 min
Stillwater, MN, USA

Wikipedia states: "The Birkie course is quite hilly, and is recognized as one of the more difficult cross country ski marathon courses in the world."

Namekagon River.

Last month I accompanied a geocacher to a few caches. Since then I've continued tagging along and have gotten into geocaching a little deeper.

While I was in the Hayward area, I was able to hit a couple locations that were accessible even in the snow.

This first picture (to the left) is of the Namekagon River on the edge of Hayward. What a beautiful river, the site made me want to start canoeing again... it's been awhile since the last time I went.

Prentice Park.

One of the other areas I went to visit on Saturday was Prentice Park in Ashland, WI. Prentice Park is one of twelve parks in Ashland, and the largest at 100 acres. It also has several artesian wells among the picnic sites.

This picture (to the right) is one well that is free-flowing into a rocky pool filled with water-cress. I didn't have a thermometer with me, but the other artesian wells I have measured in the area produce water at about 42 degrees (F).

The water runs throughout the winter and flows into Fish Creek Slough and Chequamegon Bay. A very cool spot to visit any time of the year.

Out and about on Sunday.

Sunday was a sunny day with blue skies, a perfect day to go out and do a little more hiking and geocaching.

A nearby spot is on the northern-most edge of the National Forest, a few miles from my house.

This picture (to the left) is a view across a pine barren. In the warmer months the ground should be covered in blueberry plants.

It was chilly with a temp of 16 and a breezy wind out of the NW. With about two feet snow on the ground, snowshoes are required.

Mt. Valhalla.

The last geocache hunt took us to Mount Valhalla's Valkyre ski trail in the Chequamegon-Nicolet National Forest (CNNF).

A fellow geocacher and I snowshoed through pine forest in our search. Is that a serious directional indication in the picture (to the right) or just him goofing around?

Of course, after the fresh air it was nice to hit the Valhalla Pub & Grub for a burger and fries.

This image (to the left) should load the most recent image from the Valhalla Pub & Grub's webcam, which grabs the most recent picture when this blog is loaded.

For a page that can be refreshed, visit the webcam's site (here).

Light snow continues today.

2009-02-21T07:18:00.003-06:00

With a dusting of snow this morning, more is on its way across far northern Wisconsin.

I captured this radar screenshot (to the right) at 6:54 this morning, from the radar site KDLH in Duluth, MN.

Light snow continues to spiral across the region this morning as a low pressure moves eastward across northern Illinois.

Behind this Illinois system, some light lake-effects snows will impact Lake Superior's south shore.

Expectations.

The NWS Offices believe an inch is possible across the entire region, with higher amounts from Lake Superior along the South Shore of Michigan and Wisconsin.

This graphic (to the left) is from NWS Duluth and highlights the northern tier of counties as seeing anywhere from 2-4" up to 6" in the Penokee Range of Ashland and Iron counties.

At 7:00 I measured only a trace of snow on Maple Hill, but while the flakes are small, they are also becoming steady and persistent.

Sunny skies and calm winds.

2009-02-20T14:13:00.008-06:00

There really isn't much to talk about, so I'll post a couple pictures from Maple Hill.

With a temperature near 20 F across northern Wisconsin, the sun and blue skies are a pleasant change from the snow and clouds of Monday and Tuesday.

The paved side-roads still have a layer of snow covering the asphalt, but sunshine will slowly sublimate the snow off.

This picture (to the right) is looking west from this afternoon.

And I took a snap of the upper driveway and house (to the left). The sugar maples, ironwood, basswood, and birch trees are all bare; the hemlock and white spruce are keeping things green.

As the same with the first picture, this one too is looking west.

Temperatures were cool across the region last night (minus teens inland with single digits closer to the Lake). Clear skies continue today across the entire area before the next system moves in from the west.

A satellite view.

I've embellished a visible satellite image (from GOES 12) taken at 13:45 this afternoon (to the right).

Fresh snowfall shows up as white across Wisconsin. Thicker white clouds are moving into Minnesota from the Dakotas, which will continue pushing east into the evening.

In fact, southern Minnesota and Wisconsin could see several inches of snow this evening as a low pressure system strengthens as it moves eastward through Iowa, northern Illinois, and the LP of Michigan.

Snow across northern WI, severe storms in the Deep South.

2009-02-19T12:40:00.013-06:00

The snow wasn't quite as heavy as first predicted.

Winter Weather Advisories were issued for most of Wisconsin Tuesday and Tuesday night by the NWS Offices covering the state (Dlh, Mpx, Grb, Mkx, & Arx).

I posted a map (previous blog post) of the forecast snow totals across Wisconsin. This radar loop (to the right) was compiled by OSNW3 and shows the precipitation as it moved across the region.

Reported snow totals.

I won't spend more time than I already have searching for reports, but I did manage to compile some snow totals on a map (to the left).

I added two contour lines -- greater than two inches in green and greater than five inches in peach(ish) [honestly, I'm not sure what to call it... Atomic Tangerine comes close or maybe Gamboge].

NWS Green Bay had forecast between 4 and 7 inches for their area... which seems to have been accurate for nine out of nineteen counties (9/19=47%).

NWS Duluth's forecast was between 2 and 5 inches for their Wisconsin counties, which was correct for six of their eight counties (6/8=75%), and was actually under-predicted for two counties (Bayfield and Douglas).

NWS Minneapolis had forecast 1 to 3 inches for their nine Wisconsin counties, these counties saw anywhere from 1.9 to 4.5 inches... not bad.

NWS La Crosse saw four of their thirteen (4/13=30%) Wisconsin counties report more than 1 inch when they originally forecast 2 to 5 inches for their area... quite a bust.

And speaking of busts, NWS Milwaukee seems to have missed their mark completely. I found only one snow report greater than 1 inch on the local storm report (LSR) list, from Fond du Lac county. Their original forecast was 3 to 5 inches across the northern-half of their area with lesser amounts south. Zero counties reached their forecast snow totals from their 20-county area.

Something cool on radar.

For a couple hours there was a feature which OSNW3 and I have discussed in the past, except reversed. I'll call it a 'reversed' Bayfield Bomber.

Occasionally, when the winds are from the southwest and lake-effect snow occurs, a very heavy streamer is formed by the topography of Bayfield Peninsula which brings very heavy lake-effect snow to the UP of Michigan.

In this case, the wind was from the opposite direction and brought a heavy lake-effect streamer into Bayfield, Douglas, Burnett, and Washburn counties. It was under this heavy band that 6.5 and 5.2 inches were reported from northwestern Bayfield County. This radar image (above) is from 9:01 on the 18th.

The system brought severe weather into the Deep South.

This map (to the left) comes from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and displays all the severe weather reports from yesterday (Wed. 18th).

I bring this up because one of my weather-blog friends was storm chasing in one storm and provided a great video. I believe he also provided a great lesson of what you don't want to do.

There were 6 reports of possible tornadoes in five separate locations with no injuries listed. Also reported were 117 hail reports and 42 wind damage reports.

Mike's cell.

Mike hit the road in the morning towards west-central Alabama, after the SPC posted a Moderate severe weather risk covering a large section of Alabama and Mississippi.

I borrowed two radar images from Dewdrop's blog (The Flight of a South Georgia Storm Chaser) where she posted GR images of Mike's cell (to the right).

The top image seems to be Composite Reflectivity of the cell in Hale County, Alabama at 17:24 yesterday (Wed. 18th).

The bottom image is Relative Storm Velocity from the same time, where the cell is beginning to show some rotation.

The radar site (KBMX in Birmingham, AL) is located 60 miles to the NE of this location, so towards the upper right corner of the radar image.

The green colors indicate winds blowing towards the radar site while red colors indicate winds blowing away from the radar site. When you get winds blowing in opposite directions next to each other, it is indicative of rotation in the cell.

Mike's cell started off as a hail threat, but then a Tornado Warning was issued for the possibility of a developing tornado. The rotation seen in the cell was something that could quickly develop into a larger problem.

So, onto Mike's video.

It looks like Mike was not in the best location to be chasing this storm cell. There was large hail and damaging winds as he was driving, even a possibility that Mike was in the middle of a broad and extremely weak tornado. There could have been a tornado behind any tree or wrapped in rain... he was lucky that it wasn't more serious!!!

Mike has numerous postings from his chase on his blog: Alabama Weather
And Dewdrop always has great stuff on her blog: Flight of S.GA. Storm Chaser

Post 3... current snow numbers, more snow coming.

2009-02-17T10:58:00.017-06:00

After a snowy December and an average January, February hasn't brought much snow.

I've posted this graph before, but I've added the most recent updates (to the right).

Dashed lines indicate cumulative snowfall and daily snow depth from last winter.

Currently I have 15.9" of snow on the ground, with 62.9" so far this winter.

The recent melt has brought our snow cover down to match last year at this time.

Daily snowfall.

I've graphed daily snow totals from this winter (light blue) and last winter (black) in this chart (to the left).

It looks like we can expect two periods of heavier snowfall -- around Christmas, and around April Fool's Day.

January's end and February are drier times, usually when arctic air suppresses snow to our south.

Only flurries lately.

12 Feb: 0.1" new snow.
13 Feb: 0.5" new snow.
14 Feb: 0.9" new snow.
15 Feb: trace of new snow.

This radar screenshot (to the right) comes from my GRlevel3 at KDLH in Duluth, MN. It shows only light flurries from the northwest on Valentine's Day evening.

The drought across Wisconsin continues to expand (US Drought Monitor). The entire state really does need several massive snowstorms to gain enough liquid before the spring melt.

Upcoming storm Wednesday.

A low pressure is forecast to track along the southern Great Lakes as a cold front slides south.

NWS Duluth's Daily Weather Story (to the left) shows where the first snow will fall today and tonight, across northern Minnesota.

Tomorrow, the snow moves into Wisconsin as the cold front slides through. There will be an opportunity for an inch of snow before lake-effect snow will bring several more inches. The highest snowfall will likely occur along the South Shore, where 5 to 8 inches are possible.

In addition, wind will begin to create blizzard conditions across the UP as winds begin gusting between 30 and 40 mph as winds blow across the big Lake.

Current Watches, Warnings, and Advisories.

I've taken a map (to the right) showing all the warnings and advisories across the UP and Wisconsin from MichiganWxSystem.com, on top of which I labeled the expected snowfall totals from each NWS Office.

The highest amount in the region is expected in the central UP where winds will bring heavy snow off the ice-free waters of Eastern Lake Superior.

It does look like the entire state will see snowfall from this system.

Other Blogs to Follow:

Scout will be keeping an eye on the weather in the southeast corner of the state on WeatherScout.

OSNW3 posts great updates during (and after) storms from Oshkosh, WI in the east-central portion of the state on his blog.

And finally, Derek will keep us updated on conditions in northwest Wisconsin on NW Wisconsin Weather.

Post 2... Great Backyard Bird Count

2009-02-17T10:00:00.015-06:00

A quick look at the GBBC 2009.

I spent an hour, over three of the four count days, watching my yard and birdfeeder. I observed 7 species total.

OSNW3 (blog) in Oshkosh also spent some time counting for the GBBC, so I thought it'd be fun to post the total results from Washburn, WI and compare them to Oshkosh, WI.

Washburn, WI (to the right) seems to have had 6 people/groups report from the Count, counting a total of 12 species.

Oshkosh, WI (to the left) seems to have had 25 people/groups report from the Count, with a total of 34 species.

One one hand, more people observing would give a better chance to find more species. On the other, Oshkosh has had more mild weather than the northern section of the state, so naturally the warmer weather would allow more birds to forage for more food.

Comparing the two locations.

The most common species reported from the Wasburn area was Pine Siskin, while the most numerous from the Oshkosh area was Mallards. Both locations are on the edge of a very large lake, but with thick ice conditions on Chequamegon Bay there were no reports of waterfowl along Lake Superior.

Absent from the north were House Sparrows, Juncos, House Finches, and Cardinals. Northern Wisconsin is difficult for Cardinals, so it is no surprise that some species were not counted in the Washburn area.

Results for two species.

I've noticed an absence of Juncos in my yard this winter. They usually pass through my feeder several times a winter, never staying in one location too long across the north.

This map (to the right) shows the data for Dark-eyed Juncos around Wisconsin from this year's count.

It's clear from the map that Juncos are more prevalent in the south, while only sporadic in the north. So now I know that they are around, but few and far between. I still have hope that a few will find my yard yet this winter.

The other bird that was mentioned on my blog was the Blue Jay, by Derek (from NW Wisconsin Weather).

I have seen one or two Blue Jays occasionally hanging around my feeder. I'd rather they bother someone else since they are usually both pigs and bullies. In the last week they must have sensed my distaste and moved on to a neighbors, I didn't see any during the Count.

This map (to the left) shows the distribution of Blue Jays during the GBBC. It looks like Blue Jays are pretty widespread, but a little more numerous in the north.

All the places counted in Wisconsin.

I've found this map (to the right) after I wrote the earlier portion of this post. It shows all the locations which reported and the approximate number of lists from each location.

This year (2009) there were 1,847 lists submitted which counted 121 species across the state. The due date for submissions (internet & postal) is March 1st, so it is likely that a few more reports will be added to the tally in the next two weeks.

Last year (2008) there were 2,251 lists submitted with 114 species. It seems there was a bit less interest this year.

All results (from this and previous years) can be found on the 'Explore Result s' page on the Great Backyard Bird Count's website.

Post 1... Post-Ice Storm (9-10 Feb)

2009-02-17T08:52:00.012-06:00

Playing catch-up again, starting with a summary of the last ice storm.

While I measured only a brief glazing of ice before the precipitation turned over to rain, but several tenths were measured along the North Shore. Some ice totals reported from Minnesota:

0.10" Brainerd 5SW, Crow Wing Co.
0.10" Payne 4E, St. Louis Co.
0.10" Littlefork, Koochiching Co.
0.10" Lutsen, Cook Co.
0.15" Silver Bay, Lake Co.
0.15" Duluth (on the hill), St. Louis Co.
0.20" Finland, Lake Co.

This map (to the right) comes from the NWS in Duluth and shows the smoothed contours of where the heaviest icing occurred after 9 February.

The complete summary from NWS Duluth can be found (here).

Otherwise, it was a rain event.

While ice was a concern, the system brought enough warm air northward that the freezing rain was quickly replaced by only rain.

My weather station recorded a maximum temperature of 41.6 degrees at 7:20 on 10 February.

Overall, I measured 62 consecutive hours and 50 minutes above freezing, beginning at 12:00 on 9 February.

This is another map (to the left) from the NWS Duluth with smoothed contours of measured rainfall.

From the two days (9th and 10th) I had 0.11" of rain, sleet, and freezing rain.

A large swirling system.

While the upper-level low was spinning across the Northern Plains, the cold front swept through Red River of the South.

The northern states received snow, freezing rain, & cold rain, the southern states saw a severe weather outbreak.

From Oklahoma and Texas there were 12 reports of tornadoes and funnel clouds. Initial reports from Lone Grove and the Oklahoma City area indicate that 2 people died and 26 were injured from multiple tornadoes.

The CIMSS Satellite Blog has an excellent post which looks at the tornado outbreak from satellite images, some pretty cool stuff to look at!!

The initial SPC storm reports from 10 February can be found (here).

Ice storms.

While the ice that fell across western Lake Superior on 9 February, it was only the first of the season... there is always the threat of another one (or two). With some luck, any further ice will not be severe.

A severe ice storm already made headlines across the US three weeks ago in Kentucky (27-29 January 2009). I found this picture (to the left) from that event. It's a beautiful shot of a female Cardinal sitting on a fence. Such ice events can be brutal on wildlife too. What is there to eat when everything is covered in ice??

I follow a couple blogs that spoke of the Kentucky Ice Storm:

Kentucky / Southern Indiana Weather Blog
Jackson - West Tennessee Weather Blog
Ryan's Weather Blog (Louisville Kentucky area)
ABC 33/40 Alabama Weather Blog

The beginning of the ice.

2009-02-09T10:18:00.004-06:00

Freezing Rain Advisories have been expanded over northern Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan.

The NWS Office in Duluth has added the remaining counties of its county warning area in northern Wisconsin to the previous advisory.

The NWS Office in Green Bay has issued a freezing rain advisory for six counties in north-central Wisconsin.

The NWS Office in Marquette has issued a freezing rain advisory for the western Peninsula counties.

Temperatures remain near or below freezing across the region this morning. Even if air temperatures rise a few degrees, there is a threat that surface temperatures (e.g. roads) will remain cold enough to freeze rain on contact.

The highest ice accumulations are still forecast for the Arrowhead of Minnesota where up to 1/2" of ice is possible by Tuesday.

Out ahead of the system.

Already this morning sleet and freezing rain have begun across the northwoods. This radar screenshot (to the left) is from KDLH at 9:44. WI-INFLOW's GRlevel3 radar image can be found (here).

The first precipitation episode occurred in northern Bayfield County a few minutes after 9:00.

Temperatures are hovering around 30 degrees -- both on Maple Hill and Ashland's airport (KASX).

These scattered showers are ahead of the main system, which is forecast to arrive later this afternoon. Precipitation is then expected to become more constant and widespread.

Snow depth and Monday's storm update.

2009-02-07T15:41:00.017-06:00

Ice Storm Warning and Freezing Rain Advisory issued.

An ice storm warning has been issued by the NWS for the Arrowhead from 9:00 Monday until 12:00 Tuesday for up to 1/2" ice.

A freezing rain advisory is in effect for part of northwest Wisconsin, from 9:00 Monday until 6:00 Tuesday, for up to 1/4" ice accumulation.

A look at my current snow depth.

When I took my snow measurements Saturday morning (before sunrise) I took a picture of my measuring stick (to the right).

21.3 inches, which is down almost half-an-inch from the previous morning.

So far this winter I have accumulated 60.4 inches of snow total.

The first snowflakes fell on October 27th in my backyard.

The last time I measured rain (or liquid precipitation) was on November 14th, since then it has been all snow.

I have had snow continuously covering the ground since December 6th, which reached a maximum depth on January 20th with 23.1 inches of snow.

Graphed numbers.

Anyone who glances at my blog knows I like visuals. So here's a look: I put my snow numbers from this winter, and last winter, into a graph (to the left).

The solid lines show my cumulative snow depth (running total) and daily snow depth.

This winter has been a little bit snowier than last for my area.

Monday's (2.9.09) Storm Update.

It looks northern Wisconsin will see some freezing rain Monday afternoon, but it will turn over to rain Monday night.

This graphic (to the right) shows the NWS graphical forecast (link) for 12:00 and 18:00 (6:00p) Monday. Green indicates areas that will likely receive rain while purplish is freezing rain.

To reiterate from my previous post, the exact precipitation type (i.e. rain or freezing rain) will be determined by only a couple degrees. A slight nuance will change which locations will receive significant ice or only rain.

The Arrowhead of Minnesota seems like it will be where the worst freezing rain will be located. They are preparing for dangerous conditions and possible power outages. (Duluth News Tribune article)

As the system pulls away Tuesday and Tuesday night, the entire region could see some light snow as cold air returns for the rest of February.

All eyes on Monday (2.9.09)

2009-02-05T18:39:00.008-06:00

After a mild weekend ahead, a possible icy Monday looms.

The models have been vacillating on details, but are consistent enough that everyone's confidence is gradually increasing as the event draws closer. I took this surface analysis map (to the right) from the GFS model (link) initialization on 3 Feb. On top of the map I drew in the path of the low pressure system in light purple with some location/dates for reference.

On 3 Feb the system was far offshore of California. Tonight (5 Feb) the system is spinning over the Sierra Nevada along the Nevada/California border.

By Saturday (7 Feb) the system will trek down the California coast and move into the Four Corner region. From the southern Rockies it will make a bee-line for the Upper Mississippi River Valley on Monday (9 Feb) and Tuesday.

Impacts??

The entire forecast hinges on exactly what the temperature will be. A few degrees one way will produce all rain, while a few degrees the other way will cause the precipitation to be more like snow. Of course, right in the middle would bring freezing rain.

This graphic (to the left) is from the NWS Graphical Forecast Suite and shows what weather is expected at 18:00 on Monday evening.

At the moment, freezing rain is the most likely outcome for the northern half of Wisconsin, the UP of Michigan and northern Minnesota.

This part of the forecast is what will likely change a bit between now and Monday evening. The models will continue to track this storm and everyone is watching the models. Only as we get closer to the event will we know precisely what to expect.

The morale of my story is this: there will be a system moving our way the beginning of this next week. Someone will likely see quite a bit of freezing rain.

Looking ahead.

Just for the fun of it I clipped out the NWS point forecast for my location (to the right).

Some light precipitation is possible on Saturday, but really isn't a big deal.

The interesting part of the forecast (beside the abnormally warm temperatures for February) is that "Freezing Rain Likely" is slated for Monday night.

Since 16 November, only snow has fallen at my location... 60.4 inches so far. This will be the first time this winter that I'm facing the threat of something besides snow.

Exceptional warmth followed by strong winds and snow.

2009-02-03T12:08:00.010-06:00

It really was a cold January.

Last January (2008) had an average temperature of 14.8 degrees (F).

This January (2009) had an average temperature of 7.5 degrees (F).

To demonstrate the difference, I put together a quick graph (to the right) showing high and low temperatures from both years.

The dashed lines indicate last January, the solid indicate this January's temperatures. Only one week of January 2009 was warmer than 2008.

After a cold January, it ended with a heat wave.

A very strong low pressure system cruised across southern Ontario bringing warm air up from the central Plain States.

This map (to the left) is from MichiganWxSystem.com and shows the warmth Saturday (31st) evening.

The warm air even reached northern Wisconsin. Temperatures in the region actually reached 40 degrees in most locations around sunset.

I measured 41.5 degrees at 17:50. Ashland reached 41 degrees and Port Wing hit 45 degrees.

Very strong winds blew across the region from Ontario's low pressure.

The highest measured wind gust I found in the region was 62 mph at International Falls, MN (not pictured).

I put this map together (to the right) of the highest gusts reported.

The highest gust I found in Wisconsin was 57 mph at Port Wing on Lake Superior.

The highest gust I found in Michigan was 54 mph at Rock of Ages near Isle Royale.

I couldn't find any reports of damage or power outages, but I believe there were some trees down on power lines north of Duluth.

Snow across the region followed the wind.

A cold front dropped down behind the wind, bringing colder air from northern Canada.

A weak impulse along the cold front brought snow and lake-effect snow to the region on Monday (2nd) and Tuesday (3rd).

A lake-effect snow warning was in effect for the southern shore of Lake Superior, with the possibility of up to 8" of snow in certain locations.

The highest reported snow fall (link) has come from Birch Hill along the Ashland & Iron County line, with 10 inches (estimated).

The heaviest snow bands have missed my location on Maple Hill. My two day total has only been 2.8" of new snow.

The winds continue to funnel down Lake Superior from the NE, with light snow still falling across the south shore this morning. However, with all the ice cover on Lake Superior combined with backing winds will shut off any snowflakes later today.

Ice caves accessible, Lk Superior freezing over, sled dog race results.

2009-01-29T19:22:00.011-06:00

Mawikwe Ice Caves open this year!!

Wow, even earlier than I predicted :) Yesterday the National Park Service (NPS) declared the ice safe enough to access the ice caves.

I took this screenshot (to the right) from the Bayfield Chamber of Commerce's website. Calling the NPS's phone recording will produce the latest message on the ice conditions. 715.779.3398 ext 3.

Pleasant weather on a weekend will bring a plethora of people (and dogs), I've seen a couple hundred people on the ice at one time. It really is a more enjoyable adventure if the caves are visited without a ton of people around.

And as always, I would stress being careful and prepared. A north or northwest wind hits the cliffs at full blast, having only a frozen lake to travel across for many miles. Wind chills can sometimes be dangerous!! Be sure to know the weather forecast in advance, and there is good coverage of NOAA Weather Radio transmitters in the entire region.

Cell phones do not function well at the base of the cliffs, not because of providers, but because the rock walls block most signals from Wisconsin. Only cell towers from Minnesota have a clear line, but are 25-30 miles away and produce a very weak signal.

And finally, the parking situation can be overwhelming during nice weekends. There is a parking lot next to the beach, but oftentimes parking extends up to a mile down the road. The NPS has workers keeping the traffic moving, but be prepared to add more walking time if there might be a lot of people visiting.

I'll re-post some links of the caves:

National Park Service's cave website
National Park Service's cave PDF (excellent)

My blog from last year, with slideshow
The Howder Family's cave website with summer pictures

SuperiorTrails.com cave page with winter pictures
Midwest Weekends Travel Guide sea cave article
Antigo Daily Journal.com sea cave article
Someone's personal page with sea cave pictures

Lake Superior is freezing over.

Today the North American Ice Service updated its map of ice cover on the Great Lakes (link). This image (to the right) is of Lake Superior from data during the last three days.

The grey color indicates 'fast ice', solid and thick. Orange and red indicate medium thickness lake ice. Yellow is thinner ice that is new.

Blue denotes water with some ice mixed in, but not enough ice to cover the water. White is open water.

It looks like western Lake Superior is completely frozen over, while the eastern third still has more freezing to do. With plenty of winter temperatures ahead of us yet, there are still two more months to go. Normally, the ice reaches a maximum extent by mid-March.

This graph (to the left) shows average ice coverage of Lake Superior (green line) versus measured ice covereage (blue bars).

For the most recent week, Superior has quite a bit more ice than average. Also of note on this graph is the peak around March 12th. I'm hoping that this year will be a complete freeze. Of course, I'll be following the ice and post more on this later.

Tied into this story was the fact that ferry service between Madeline Island and the mainland at Bayfield was suspended a month earlier than the past several years. I posted the article in my blog from 2 January 2008 (here).

John Beargrease race results.

The Beargrease Sled Dog Race this year was just as brutal as last year, but in a different way. 2008 saw freezing rain, blizzard conditions, and terrible windchills. 2009 was calmer but bitterly cold with windchills to match. Each morning temperatures were reported as low as -30 with lower windchill values. Because of this, many teams were forced to drop out.

This year's winner was the same as last - Jason Barron from Lincoln, MT. He departed the finish line at 15:59:09 on Sunday and crossed the finish line at 14:37:08 on Wednesday. He spent 42 hours 36 minutes on the trail and 29 hours and 7 minutes resting at checkpoints.

Jason raced 66 hours 47 minutes last year, but spent 71 hours 43 minutes racing this year. An indication that the cold weather slowed down the dogs and the mushers.

Race results can be found (here). This year:

21 teams entered the race. (27 last year)
15 teams withdrew during the race. (15 last year)
7 teams finished. (9 last year)

The prize for the John Beargrease Sled Dog Race is $35,000 and all who finished (I believe) have earned a qualification for the Iditarod.

This next weekend is the Apostle Island Sled Dog Race in Bayfield County. My previous post has more information. I hope to be at the starting line.

So much going on in the winter!!!

2009-01-25T10:25:00.018-06:00

Upcoming Events in the Bay Area.

25 January - John Beargrease Sled Dog Race
1 February - Apostle Island Sled Dog Race
13-16 Feb - Great Backyard Bird Count
14 February - Book Across the Bay
?? February - Makiwake Sea Caves
21 February - American Birkebeiner

plus area snow depth and local ski areas, what a bonus!!

John Beargrease Sled Dog Race.

I completely spaced on the running of the John Beargrease Sled Dog Marathon, the 26th annual race is this weekend.

The John Beargrease is the longest sled dog race (411 miles) in the Lower 48 and is a major pre-qualifier for the Iditarod race.

The weather last year was brutal (freezing rain followed by blizzard conditions with windchills down to -50) while this year has brought almost perfect weather... albeit some cool windchills (sunny with windchills of -20).

I'll post this year's results at the completion.

Last year's winner:

Jason Barron from Lincoln, MT.
Finished with 11 dogs.
Finish time: 34 hours and 43 minutes on the trail (32 hours 04 minutes of rest at checkpoints).

Last year's racers:

At the start line: 27
Finished: 9
Still racing: 3
Withdrawn: 15

This year there are only 21 teams entered, from as far away as Montana, New Hampshire, and Ontario. I would imagine that last year's weather frightened a few mushers away.

My posts from last year's Beargrease Race (here and here).

Official John Beargrease Sled Dog Race website

Apostle Islands Sled Dog Race.

The AISDR is not nearly as long as the John Beargrease, but is also an Iditarod pre-qualifier and can be a lot of fun for spectators. There are 4 categories:
80 miles (8 dogs)
60 miles (6 dogs)
40 miles (Sportsman)
10 miles (under 16 years of age)

The race begins (and ends) a few miles west of Bayfield on February 1st. The starting line has a bonfire with hot chocolate, as well as the ability for spectators to be a few feet from the starting line.

My post on the event from last year is (here).

Apostle Island Sled Dog Race website

Book Across the Bay - ski and snowshoe race.

From the official webpage:

Book Across the Bay is the upper Midwest's most unique winter event, open to skiers and snowshoers of all ages and ability levels. The 10-kilometer course, which is groomed for both classic-style and skate skiing, starts in Ashland and ends in Washburn, and follows a route not on land, but over the frozen surface of Lake Superior, the world's largest lake. The event is held at night, and the course is lit by the stars above and up to 1,000 candles in ice luminaries that line the entire route.

Their website says that last year was the biggest year, so far, with 2,300 participants. This year they are preparing for up to 3,000.

The race begins at 18:00 on Valentine's Day from the marina in-front of Hotel Chequamegon in Ashland, WI. The finish line will be in Washburn, WI near Thompson's West End park.

Book Across The Bay website

The Great Backyard Bird Count by the Cornell Lab of Ornithology and the National Audubon Society.

This is actually a nationwide event, but it's worth posting since the Chequamegon Bay area is huge for birding -- the Chequamegon Bay Birding and Nature Festival (link) is held in May, which attracts birders from around the country.

For anyone who has a backyard birdfeeder, the GBBC is easy and fun. Only 15 minutes of time is needed on any (or all) of the count days. Count volunteers submit their observations online, allowing the organizers to tally the numbers and get an excellent view of how/where all the bird species are doing this year.

I keep an eye on the birds around my feeder, but this count allows me to pay closer attention for a few days. For example, I had Dark-eyed Juncos last winter, this year I have not seen a single one yet.

Once the count is tallied, all the information on each species can be viewed online. If I don't have Juncos in my backyard this year, did anyone in my region? Is the population declining this year? Or are the Juncos simply hanging out in a different location this year?

The Audubon's GBBC website
The Great Backyard Bird Count website

Mawikwe Sea Caves of the Apostle Islands National Lakeshore.

Every year thousands of people flood to the northernmost tip of Wisconsin to see the ice caves. It is a several mile walk on the Lake along the shoreline to access the caves (there is no beach along the cliffs).

The ice does not freeze deep enough to be safe some years. This year has brought a very cold winter, which has allowed plenty of ice to build up on Western Lake Superior. With good conditions already so early in the winter, it looks like this year will definitely be a sea cave year, and earlier than most.

The best only way to know if the ice is safe is wait for the signal from the National Park Service. They walk out on the ice daily, checking for fissures and cracks, and measuring the ice depth. When the ice is safe enough the NPS lets us know on their voice recording (715.779.3398 ext 3) and on the Bayfield's Chamber of Commerce website (here). As of 21 January, the caves are not yet accessible.

And honestly, the caves are dangerous year-round with accidents happening both in the summer and winter. Personally, I wouldn't want to fall through the ice in such a remote location. Windsled is the only way to rescue anyone and cell phones do not work well along the cliffs.

In good years the ice is safe by the end of February or the beginning of March, only for a week or two. I check the Daily Ice Maps (link) for Lake Superior every other day and I believe that by Valentine's Day the ice will be safe. It might be a very early year!!

In the meantime, I found plenty of websites concerning the caves, many with personal pictures (including mine from last year):

National Park Service's cave website
National Park Service's cave PDF (excellent)
My blog from last year, with slideshow
The Howder Family's cave website with summer pictures
SuperiorTrails.com cave page with winter pictures
Midwest Weekends Travel Guide sea cave article
Antigo Daily Journal.com sea cave article
Someone's personal page with sea cave pictures

Snow depth across the region.

From JohnDee.com (an excellent source of winter conditions) I pulled this map (to the right) of snowdepths across northern Wisconsin. I'm proud to say that one of those dots is me :)

The deepest I've measured in northeastern Bayfield County was 23.1 inches on 20 January. Currently I'm sitting at 20.3 inches with sunny skies and no new snow in the forecast until later this week.

Cross-country and downhill skiing.

Mt.Valhalla is in the Chequamegon-Nicolet National Forest, Mt. Ashwabay is just a few miles south of the city of Bayfield. Mount Telemark is located in southern Bayfield County near Cable, and Whitecap Mountain is southeast of Ashland in Iron County.

Mt. Ashwabay has a 317 foot drop over 65 acres, for both downhill and cross-country skiing. Mt. Ashwabay Ski & Recreation Area (link) (blog) reports that they have received 120 inches of snow this year with 13 runs open, the longest is 1,500 feet long. On Wednesday they reported a 30" base on their slopes.

Mt. Valhalla is on public land and therefore has no commercial facilities. The Forest Service's contractor maintains the cross-country trails, but not as often as a private ski area. It is rustic and quiet while not too far from the beaten trail. A major snowmobile trail runs near Valhalla with Mt. Valhalla Lodge (link) and Mt. Valhalla Pub & Grub (link) close by.

The Pub & Grub maintains a webcam (link) of their parking lot, aimed towards Mt. Valhalla. Both are up the road from my location.

Mount Telemark is located a few miles outside of Cable, WI. It's also the highest point in Bayfield County at 1700 feet above seal level. Telemark is the start location of the American Birkebiner (link) coming up on 21 February, which is the largest cross-country ski marathon in North America!

Telemark Resort (link) reports excellent cross-country ski conditions as of Wednesday. They have a base of nine inches of snow and 20 miles of trails open.

Whitecap Mountain is located southeast of Ashland, WI and just west of Ironwood, MI. Whitecap Mountain Ski Resort (downhill only) is running full blast with excellent conditions. Whitecap has a vertical drop of 400 feet and 43 trails on 500 acres. The longest run is 5,280 feet!!

Whitecap (link) has received 124 inches of snow this winter and 16 inches in the last week.

Weather station info.

2009-01-22T14:18:00.030-06:00

Weather station, location, rain gauge, snowboard, the whole she-bang.

I have owned a Vantage Pro (by Davis Instruments) since May 2003.

More recently Davis has come out with an improved version, the Vantage Pro 2. The new station has a much farther range and an updated design on the Integrated Sensor Suite (ISS), otherwise, they are about the same.

This is a picture (to the right) of my VP Console.

Numbers on the console:

This clip (to the left) from the Quick Reference Guide (link) shows displayed variables better than I could. Full pdf manual (here).

Some of the displayed numbers can be switched between different variables. In each case, the Guide lists each of the possible choices. For example, I chose to view wind chill in the cold months and dew point during the warm ones.

The graph can be used to quickly display any variable: last 6 hours (one point every 15 min), last 24 hours (one point per hour), last 24 days (point point per day), or the last 24 months (one point per month).

Integrated Sensor Suite (ISS).

The ISS (pictured to the left) is a combination of the humidity sensor, thermometer, and tipping bucket rain gauge (0.01").

A solar panel on the front of the unit charges a capacitor which powers the ISS when there is enough sunlight. A back-up battery (non-rechargeable) is used in periods of cloudiness/darkness. I have to change the battery about once every 2 years.

A very small compartment on the bottom of the ISS contains the circuit board and battery. From the right side of the compartment a small antenna broadcasts a signal to the inside console.

I believe the new VP2 has the compartment/antenna on the front of the ISS, behind a slightly larger solar panel. The VP2's tipping bucket is also made of a better material than the original VP.

The anemometer.

The Vantage Pro and VP2 have an anemometer that is detachable from the ISS. A 40 foot cable is included so that the anemometer can be placed higher than the ISS.

In my previous installation I was able to achieve the NWS guideline of 33 feet above ground level (10 m). In my current location I can only go as high as 26 feet agl, which is still below the trees.

Some owners keep the anemometer attached to the ISS, but winds at 6 feet above the ground (a recommended height for the ISS) are not usually accurate. A nice website with recommendations on weather station placement can be found (here).

Optional anemometer transmitter.

I like having the flexibility of not having the anemometer tethered to the ISS, so I purchased an anemometer transmitter (Davis' page) to accompany my setup.

The anemometer transmitter has its own solar panel and battery back-up which allows it to transmit data to the inside console.

I love that I can have the anemometer mounted on the roof or TV antenna while the ISS is on a pole in the lawn.

However, this anemometer transmitter is entirely optional. If the 40 feet of cable supplied with the anemometer is too little, additional cable can be used to extend the distance between the ISS and anemometer.

It's worth noting that having a wireless setup is advantagous for lightning protection. If lightning (or a large enough static discharge) were to hit my TV antenna, the ISS and console remain isolated. If a power surge fries the electrical circuits in the house, the ISS and anemometer remain safe. Davis also sells a grounding block (Davis' page) that can be used with the anemometer cable for installations in a lightning prone environment.

Why did I choose Vantage Pro over the other models available?

I included this section in my previous web page (now deleted), so I'll re-include it here. There are always people browsing the web before they decide to buy a weather station. I compared all the specifications online, but sometimes personal experiences and installations provide the final bit of information.

The barometric pressure updates every 15 minutes. Elevation ~~can~~ should be entered into the console to give corrected station pressure for the station's location.
Outside relative humidity updates every 50 seconds.
Outside temperature and dewpoint (dewpoint derived from temp and %RH) update every 10 seconds.
Wind speed/direction update every 2.5 seconds (some other brands wait 11 seconds or more... which can completely miss any wind gust).
Rainfall updates every 10 seconds (the rain gauge counts and then transmits).
The published range of the original VP is 100-200 feet with walls, up to 400 feet without obstructions. Vantage Pro 2 has a range up to 1000 feet... the farthest in on the market. Mine is about 50 feet through one wall with reception never below 80%. A few owners report that rain, snow, and fog can occasionally impact wireless reception.

Also, Vantage Pro 2 comes in different models, so everyone can choose what best fits them - wireless (Davis' page) and cabled (Davis' page).

There is an entirely cabled version which my parents have now installed in their house. I like it because all the variables in the cabled version update every second. Also, this model is a bit cheaper than the wireless. The cabled version only has one wire which runs from the ISS to the console, and it is small - about the size of a standard telephone cable, so is easy to install.

An optional feature is to add a UV sensor and a Solar Radiation sensor (W/m2). These two sensors are very handy for those wishing to monitor the UV index (e.g. swimming locations, boaters/yachts) and for those who want to monitor strength & amount of sunlight (e.g. gardeners, climatologists). I have done without these.

Another optional addition is a Fan Aspirated Radiation Shield (FARS) which includes a very small fan that draws air through the radiation shield on the ISS. There are two options of FARS, one that runs only via the solar panel (daylight FARS) and a 24-hour FARS (Davis page). I have seen studies that a FARS temperature is about 1 degree lower in the sun than no FARS. It depends on if you want to spend the extra money for a little more accuracy. Even in the blazing sun, my non-FARS model is fantastic. The radiation shield supplied with the Vantage Pro is far superior than thermometers hung from the north side of houses... period.

WeatherLink data logger & software.

There are so many options with Vantage Pro and VP2, and here is the last. Data is stored for a period of time in the VP/VP2 console, but WeatherLink (Davis page) is the connection and software to download all the data to a computer.

WeatherLink's data logger is simply a little plug that fits into the back of the console (behind the battery cover). The logger is then the memory that the console records to.

A USB cable can then be plugged into the data logger to directly connect the console to a computer.

The logger can store up to 2560 records in the memory, the user can choose the time interval which the logger will log data. A one minute interval will fill the logger memory in 42 minutes. A five minute interval can store 8.8 days worth of data in the logger. There are seven interval choices: 1, 5, 10, 15, 30, 60, and 120 minutes. The largest time-gap interval (120 min) will store up to 213 days of measurements.

If the data logger is not downloaded before the memory fills up, the logger re-writes over the top of the oldest data. I download my VP once a day, so data from 17 days ago (10 min interval) is re-written in the logger without impacting my download.

WeatherLink software.

The software archives all the downloaded data into files on the local hard drive. All downloaded data can be viewed in different ways in different screens.

The bulletin screenshot (above) shows real-time measurements when the VP/VP2 is plugged into a computer.

The strip chart screenshot (to the left) can be configured to show any number of variables in four strips over any period of time.

Data can also be displayed in a plot where any variable can instantly be selected/de-selected and overlayed with others.

At any point, in any timeframe & screen, the data can be browsed by double-clicking on it, which opens a spreadsheet of every number recorded. There are also detailed monthly and yearly reports that summarize each day of the month (highs, lows, times, max wind speeds) in one table.

Back-up rain gauge.

With so many trees surrounding my location (more on this below) I like a second opinion. Besides, complicated things can fail, so I like having a simple back-up.

I've had a 4" rain gauge (4" diameter) since 2000, first at my previous location and now here on the Hill.

In the warm months it is mounted in the vegetable garden on a post at 5 feet above the ground. In the cold months I use the 4" rain gauge to take snowcore measurements and obtain snow-water equivalent measurements from each snowfall.

It's very handy and it's something I wouldn't want to live without. Measurements can be made down to one hundredth of an inch (0.01").

Incidentally, this is also the same type of raingauge that CoCoRaHS uses for their measurements by volunteers across the U.S. This type of rain gauge is sold by different vendors for around $30 and is usually labeled as a "long term rain gauge" because the outer cylinder holds up to 10" of rain.

Snow measurements.

How do we measure liquid from the snow? With the raingauge I discussed in the previous paragraphs.

The outer cylinder, used in conjuction with the calibrated inner cylinder, can be used to take snowcore samples. The sample is then melted and measured in with the inner cylinder.

This is the only 'action' picture (to the left) I have of a snowcore sample, the snowboard from last year is the wrong color (white this year) and the measuring stick is in 1/32s (1/10s this year). Despite last year's imperfections, it's a good visual of the process. An example from this year, the largest daily snowfall I've measured so far:

15 December 2008. 9.0 inches of new snow = 1.11 inches water. 21 inches on the ground.

Putting it all together.

To wrap up my station here is a photo (to the right) of my equipment in the front yard.

The ISS is mounted on a pole. I hit a rock while driving the pole (the yard is nothing but a glacial rockpile) and I'm not cutting the pole, so the ISS is about one foot higher than I'd like. [The NWS standard for a thermometer is 5 feet above ground level.]

A snow depth gauge (green) is in the background. I find that the snow drifts around it, so it's nice to look at but not something I rely on.

And the white snowboard is lying on the ground in the foreground, thanks to Mr. Brian Hahn. It's gotten quite a workout this winter! It currently blends in with the snow pack, so this picture is as good as it gets.

And finally, something I think is very important to consider... station sitting.

Micro-climates can hugely affect measurements, so I feel a responsibility to expound on my unique location because of how it may affect my numbers.

I'm perched on the north slope of a large hill which encompasses 1 square mile of land that is 200 feet higher than the surrounding terrain.

I am about five miles from Lake Superior (to the east-ish) and about 400 feet higher than the lake surface. The land continues to rise another 200 feet to a peak a handful of miles to my west - the spine of the Bayfield Peninsula. Elevation, proximity to Lake Superior, and wind direction all play a huge role in the weather surrounding my region.

I wrote a previous post that graphically looks at the elevation differences surrounding my location, this post can be found (here).

If a hawk had a camera.

Nothing tells a story like a picture, so I'm adding this one (to the right) - an aerial photo of my location.

This image was taken in the spring, before the deciduous tree leaves sprouted. All the darker green blobs are evergreens.

The garden rain gauge is located in the middle of the vegetable garden, next to the green-roofed pole shed.

My weather station's ISS is located in the front yard next to the house.

The rest is pretty self-explanatory - it's a mixed-forest location with small clearings. Fields border the forest to the east and north.

These are the tools that comprise my station.

Arctic Air Review (Jan 13-16).

2009-01-22T11:14:00.006-06:00

I've gathered all the reports from the arctic snap last week, put the numbers on a map, and I have added my own weather station's graph.

From each reporting station I found the lowest reported temperature from January 13th to 16th and put each temperature on a map (to the right).

Some stations didn't report every morning, so there may actually be colder temperatures that were not reported.

From what I found, an automatic reporting station 8 miles northwest of Minong in Washburn county measured the lowest temperature in the state during this last cold snap... -39 degrees. A close second was Moose Lake in north-central Sawyer county with -37 degrees.

NWS Duluth's summary.

The National Weather Service in Duluth (KDLH) put together this map (to the left) with summaries of certain cities across the Northwoods from last week's cold weather.

The red lettering on the map shows high temperatures measured each day, the magenta lists the low temperatures. Beneath each row of high/low temperatures are the total hours measured at each city of below-zero temperatures.

Ashland's temperatures did not rise above zero for three days and had a minimum low temperature of -20 F. In addition, Ashland measured 85 consecutive hours below zero.

From my weather station.

I clipped this screenshot (to the right) from my weather station during the cold weather.

The blue line shows temperatures measured every 10 minutes, the purple line shows windchill values.

My location remained below zero for 84 hrs 10 min, from exactly at midnight on Tuesday morning until 12:10 Friday afternoon. My lowest temperature tied with 16 December 2008 at -18.4 degrees.

Finally uploaded some pictures.

2009-01-20T18:41:00.005-06:00

They're over a month overdue, but I finally uploaded the pictures from my Southwest trip to a web album.

Departed Wisconsin: 28 November
Returned to Wisconsin: 18 December

Total number of states driven through: 8
Total number of miles driven: ~ 4,500

Snowstorms dodged: 2
Highest elevation: 10,857 ft amsl.

Number of cribbage games w/ Eliza: lost count. Number of nights I froze my ass off: lost count.

Anyway, without further ado, you can browse through the pictures by following this (link). A map of our route can be found below.

A few locations we stayed at.

F: Bandelier National Monument Wikipedia)

G: Chaco Culture National Historical Park (Wikipedia) -- UNESCO World Heritage Site.

H: Mesa Verde National Park (Wikipedia) -- UNESCO World Heritage Site.

I: Great Sand Dune National Park (Wikipedia)

Trailcam'd animals 'round the yard.

2009-01-17T17:30:00.001-06:00

Odocoileus virginianus
White-tailed Deer - Female
Date: 10 Nov 2007
Time: 14:41
Location: front yard
Bait: frozen squash bits
Temp: 32.7 degrees F
Distance from house: 105 ft

Odocoileus virginianus
White-tailed Deer - Male
Date: 21 Aug 2007
Time: 22:16
Location: south trail from yard
Bait: none - a deer trail crossing
Temp: 63.5 degrees F
Distance from house: 245 ft

Procyon lotor
Raccoon
Date: 3 May 2008
Time: 00:41
Location: south trail from yard
Bait: small mammal carcass
Temp: 37.2 degrees F
Distance from house: 98 ft

Mephitis mephitis
Striped Skunk
Date: 1 May 2008
Time: 02:03
Location: south trail from yard
Bait: small mammal carcass
Temp: 42.1 degrees F
Distance from house: 98 ft

Cathartes aura
Turkey Vulture
Date: 10 May 2008
Time: 11:05
Location: south trail from yard
Bait: small mammal carcass
Temp: 54.8 degrees F
Distance from house: 98 ft

Martes pennanti
Fisher
Date: 2 May 2008
Time: 15:59
Location: south trail from yard
Bait: small mammal carcass
Temp: 37.3 degrees F
Distance from house: 98 ft

Canis latrans
Wile E. Coyote
Date: 28 Apr 2008
Time: 21:52
Location: south trail from yard
Bait: small mammal carcass
Temp: 29.1 degrees F
Distance from house: 98 ft

Ursus americanus
American Black Bear
Date: 25 Sep 2007
Time: 19:01
Location: northern meadow near road
Bait: apple tree
Temp: 52.0 degrees F
Distance from house: 360 ft

One Dead from Cold

2009-01-14T08:43:00.014-06:00

Hayward, WI -- A 51-year-old sleepwalker died from exposure in the subzero cold gripping northern Wisconsin after he wandered from his home early Tuesday, authorities said.

Sawyer County Chief Deputy Tim Zeigle said the man was found about 190 yards [570 feet] from his rural Hayward home after his son reported him missing late Tuesday morning. The son said the man was prone to sleepwalking, and deputies followed bare foot tracks in the snow to find him, he said.

"He had been in bed and walked outside. He had on very few clothes," said Zeigle, who declined to release the man's name until relatives had been notified.

The temperature in Hayward plunged to 16 below zero Tuesday morning, the National Weather Service said.

Complete article from AP via WCCO (here).

Arctic air settled into the region Monday night.

I grabbed this screenshot (to the left) from my weather station this morning.

The dark blue line shows outside temperatures (measured every 10 minutes) while the purple line indicates windchill values (a combination of wind and temperatures).

The coldest temperatures of the winter are likely tonight.

I pulled these two forecast maps (to the right) off the NWS Graphical Forecast suite.

The left map displays the NWS forecast low temperatures across Wisconsin tonight.

The right map shows expected windchill values by 7:00 on Thursday morning.

The NWS has issue a Windchill Warning for all of Wisconsin from tonight through tomorrow morning.

Comment Box Question.

2009-01-12T20:00:00.008-06:00

A quick answer to your question, Barb (thanks for asking!).

I couldn't find any archived snow measurements from Superior, maybe if I keep digging I could find something/someone. However, just over the Blatnik Bridge there are some very good reports going back many years. For your comparison I hope this is close enough.

I wasn't able to find an "average" December snowfall number, so I can't say if this year (or the last several) have been snowier than average. It looks like December has become more snowy in the last couple years.

Also of interest... the snowiest December in Duluth was in 1950 with 44.3 inches of snow during the month, the second snowiest was 41.7 inches in 1996.

I hope this helps!!

Addendum - 15 January.

I could have kicked myself, yesterday, when the lightbulb in my head finally lit up. Barb wondered if Superior, WI (northern Wisconsin) had more snow in December 2008 than in December 2007. The data I found, and put in the graph, suggests that snow fall amounts between the two years were very similar. I remembered that last December (2007) was a lot warmer than this most recent December (2008).

So I looked up the archived daily high temperatures from the two months and compared the results (graph to the right).

Dec 2007 saw five days 32+ degrees, with the two highest days at 37 degrees.

Dec 2008 had only three days 32+ degrees, with the warmest day at 35 degrees.

The point of my epiphany was that Barb noticed more snow this last December because less of it melted than last December.

Update on the upcoming cold temps.

2009-01-11T11:58:00.013-06:00

This morning the NWS in Duluth issued a Windchill Watch for their entire forecast area.

Windchill Watch between Monday evening and Tuesday morning.

Everyone continues to watch the cold pocket of air currently centered over the Yukon of northwestern Canada (map below). Three clippers are forecast to dive southeast into the Plain States this coming week, each bringing a piece of this arctic air southward into our area.

The wording of NWS Duluth's Windchill Watch:

" An arctic airmass will push into the region starting Monday afternoon. The combination of
brisk northerly winds with very cold air
temperatures is expected to result in extremely
cold and dangerous windchill values of 40 to 55
below zero Monday evening through Tuesday
morning. Under these conditions frostbite can
occur in less than 10 minues."

This watch will likely be upgraded to a warning as the cold temperatures draw nearer.

Somewhere, over the rainbow.

This map (to the left) is from Unisys Weather and shows measured temperatures this morning at 08:00 CST across all of North America.

I've targeted the colorful bull's-eye that shows where temperatures are lower than - 50 degrees F this morning.

This pool of cold air is what has been forecast by the models to begin spilling southeast in waves. The first wave will reach Wisconsin by Monday evening, the second, stronger wave will arrive late Tuesday night. A third, weaker wave is forecast for the weekend. These waves of cold air will not break any major records (see my previous post), but will certainly produce more ice on Lakes Michigan and Superior.

A nippy forecast at my location.

I've updated my graph (to the right) from yesterday's post with the newest NWS forecast temperatures for my location.

Blue line: forecast high/low temps
Red line: forecast windchill values
Dashed: average high/low temps

In addition, a few inches of snow are possible Monday evening as the clipper sweeps across the area. After the initial clipper there are possibilities of lake-effect snow from Lake Superior along the Wisconsin and Michigan south shore snowbelts. The exact timing and any possible amounts are too difficult to be predicted at this time.

Cold temps (future & past), current snow numbers.

2009-01-10T10:26:00.016-06:00

Everyone's been talking about the upcoming Arctic air heading our way next week.

The models have been forecasting a period of cold air headed south from the Arctic Circle for the last ten days.

Agreement between the models (finally) has brought some confidence to their forecasts, enough so that I'm ready to post about it. Since there has been disagreements between the models, the exact temperature numbers are still a bit flexible, but the general ballpark is now clear. I took the NWS forecast temperatures for my location on Maple Hill, and put them into Excel (to the right).

The point? It looks a bit chilly, eh?!?!

I looked back in my records from last winter and found a total of four days that my maximum temperature was below zero, with two consecutive max temps below zero. So far this winter, I have reached positive temperatures every day (despite 13 days with negative temperatures). In addition, if the forecast temperatures prove correct, this winter will smash the lowest temp I recorded last winter (-16.4 F). On 27 December 2008 we already beat -16.4 F by two degrees (-18.4 F).

A quick look at U.S. record low temps.

I thought it would be fun to get a refresher on record low temperatures before the cold snap arrives. If anyone thinks this up-coming cold weather is unusual, they'd be wrong. By the map (to the left) from ggweather.com, we'd have a long way to go before we broke the old Wisconsin record.

Let me digress a moment while I reminisce... I remember (vividly) Wisconsin's record minimum temperature. A very strong storm swept across the Western Great Lakes the last few days of January in 1996. Across the northern section of the state (I can't speak for the south) we had an ice storm followed by a blizzard.

The snowplows had to repeatedly clear the roads as the brutal winds re-drifted everything shut; the snowbanks were close to 15' tall. I also remember many powerline poles snapping off above the snow banks, we ended up without electricity for a week. Following the blizzard was almost a week of temperatures far below zero. I remember seeing -50 on the thermometer at my parent's house (like the kind you have on your raingauge pole, OSNW3) while Couderay (38 miles southwest of my parent's house) recorded -55 F, the state record.

Sometime during this polar freeze the main gasline in Ashland County began a small leak. The pipe exploded when crews came out to attempt repairs. This left the entire northern portion of the state without natural gas, as well as electricty. Many of the rural homes used wood as a primary or back-up heat so we survived, but it was at some point during that week when we were taping blankets over the back door that we finally gave up and bought a generator.

I found these two points on The Weather Doctor's Diary:

2 February 1996, Tower, Minnesota: Temperature plummets to a Minnesota record low of 60° below zero, F (-51° C), cancelling Tower's annual Icebox Days festival because it is too cold.

4 February 1996, Couderay, Wisconsin: The coldest temperature ever recorded east of the Mississippi River: -55 °F (-48.3° C).

This is from the NWS in Duluth concerning the record low temperature, their record (at Duluth's airport) for consecutive hours below zero is 186 between the 12th and 20th of January in 1994. 1996 came in second at 164 hours.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
145 PM CST THU JAN 13 2005

...COLD WEATHER STATS FOR THE NORTHLAND...
AS THE COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE NORTHLAND...LET'S LOOK BACK AT SOME
NORTHLAND COLD WEATHER STATISTICS:

THE COLDEST MINNESOTA TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED WAS MINUS 60 WHICH
OCCURRED AT TOWER ON FEBRUARY 2, 1996
THE COLDEST WISCONSIN TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED WAS MINUS 55 WHICH
OCCURRED AT COUDERAY ON FEBRUARY 2ND AND 4TH, 1996.

...DURING THE COLD SNAP OF 1996 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT DULUTH 
RECORDED 164 CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES. THE
TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO -1 AT 400 PM ON JANUARY 29 AND FINALLY ROSE
TO ABOVE ZERO AT NOON ON FEBRUARY 5TH. THE LOW TEMPERATURE ON
FEBRUARY 2 WAS MINUS 39 AND THE HIGH TEMPERATURE THAT DAY WAS
MINUS 21.

I also found a comparison on how the "Cold Wave Breaks Records" from the Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC).

Back to the present - current snow numbers.

I thought this graph (to the right) was interesting, a look at daily snowfall amounts from last winter (black) and this winter (bluish).

I wish I had more data at my current location for a deeper climatological view, but at least I can compare with last winter.

Last winter I had eight days of snowfall over 4 inches, with three days over 8 inches.

This winter, so far, I've had three days over 4 inches, with one day over 8 inches. I can't wait to see how the next few months turn out!

How much snow has fallen this year?

The total now stands at 49.6 inches since the first snowfall on the 27th of October. The first snowfall last winter occurred on the 7th of November (0.25") - my blog post from that date (here).

This graph (to the left) shows the cumulative snow that has fallen last winter (dashed) and this winter's (solid).

Snow depth this year and last.

It looks like we had deeper snow earlier last winter, despite an earlier start to snow this winter. I really don't have much to say, except, HOLY CRAP!!!

Honesty, there was measurable snow on the ground for 155 days last winter. That's 3 days over FIVE months!!!!!

The only difference between here and the Northwest Territory of Canada are the longer (not by much) days. I'm kinda freaking out.

Which brings me to my last topic - the First Day of Winter (catching up).

I was away from home as this event occurred in my backyard, but I still wanted to mark its passing.

OSNW3 and I came up with a working definition of the First Day of Winter (FDoW). We arrived at this definition:

"Actual" First Day of Winter represents a daily max temp equal or below 32°F and a snow depth of 1" or greater for several consecutive days.

I believe six days works well at my location, OSNW3 uses the same (OSNW3's definition here). Likewise, the Last Day of Winter (LDoW) uses a reverse definition.

Last winter this resulted in 148 days of "winter", ending the 28th of April (my blog post here). This year, my FDoW fell on the 12th of December, ten days later than last year. We'll have to see how the last day compares.

This year OSNW3 measured a FDoW on the 10th of December (blog post here), it was a day earlier last winter (ONSW3's graph here).

Last snow wrap-up, and misc. other stuff.

2009-01-07T12:27:00.012-06:00

"Other stuff" includes precipitation totals from December and 2008, early ice on Lake Superior, and 2008's hydrograph.

This snowfall wrap-up is several days delayed, but I really like post-storm reviews so I was determined to include something in this post.

The storm from January 3 & 4th was forecast to be bit stronger than what actually occurred - initial expectations were between 6 and 10 inches across northern Wisconsin. Dry air across the Northwoods held off snowfall by many hours, thereby reducing overall snow totals.

To make a long story, short, after the last snowflake fell, it was a bit of a disappointment. We were all prepared for more snow.

The only location that did see expectations met were along the North Shore in Lake and Cook counties in the Arrowhead of Minnesota. Geographical lift from the cliffs and some moisture from Lake Superior created the highest snow totals in the region.

December's precipitation totals from my location.

I measured a total of 38.1 inches of snow during the month of December.

Average for Ashland is 11 inches of snow in December, and last winter I measured 31.4 inches. This makes me think that this was a snowy December, but not terribly above average.

Liquid precipitation was a different story; I measured 3.36 inches of liquid during December. This is about 243% of average for the month!! Except for one day of freezing drizzle all the the liquid precipitation fell as snow. This would indicate that the snow contained more moisture than average and would have been packier than previous years.

This year didn't feel any different than previous years, but it was a very cloudy month. I remember only one or two days of any sunshine. It feels like this will be another grey winter.

2008 Precipitation Totals.

Except posting these numbers, I don't really have much to interpret, the totals speak for themselves.

2008 was similar to 2007 in that it was another below-average year, 89% this time around (82% last year).

And since numbers are hard to visualize, I threw them into a spreadsheet and created a couple charts (below).

Last two years.

After a drought last summer, October was a very wet month. This year didn't see the same pattern.

Instead, there are some similarities between the two years.

In both years July & August and November have been in the red, if this continues it will begin looking like a trend. Also of interest is how December seems to be wetter than average too.

Hydrographically speaking.

It took me time to search my archives for the proper files, but I managed to located my previous hydrograph from 2007 and updated it with my precipitation data from 2008.

It's clear 2008 was wetter than 2007, though both years ended lower than average, lower than expected, lower than needed.

I'm happy to say that the multi-year drought across the Lake Superior region ended by early summer. I'm cautious, because it wouldn't take much to slip back into a drought classification by the US Drought Monitor. We really could use a wet summer.

Ferry halts service early
Locals hunker down and wait for ice road

By KAREN HOLLISH Staff Writer - Ashland Daily Press

Published: Friday, January 2, 2009 9:42 AM CST

LA POINTE — On New Year's Day the Madeline Island ferry trudged through the chunky ice of Lake Superior, making its final journey between Bayfield and the remote island community of La Pointe until next spring.

This year's decision to shut down ferry service came more than a month earlier than it has in the recent past, Madeline Island Ferry Line officials said.

"This is unusually early," Marine Operations Manager Mike Radtke said. "But ice conditions as they are, we didn't want to push it."

The prevalence of heavy ice meant the trip, which normally takes between 15 and 20 minutes, was sometimes taking close to an hour, he said.

Left without ferry service, La Pointe locals' access to the grocery stores, medical services and social scenes of the mainland is limited. They must now cross the lake in one of the windsleds operated by brothers Arnie and Ron Nelson. The windsled will start their regular route times on Monday, but unlike the ferries, which can carry vehicles, the windsleds can only transport people and cargo.

On Wednesday and Thursday, many island residents used the ferry to take a vehicle to Bayfield and park it, so it will be waiting for them when they get off the windsled and need to drive to places like Ashland.

Once the ice road is ready — a much-anticipated occurrence that's happened lately in mid-February — La Pointe residents will have the freedom to drive themselves over the lake. But until then, this already isolated community of 250 residents is left in an even more secluded winter state.

Not that it's necessarily a bad thing.

"I love it because I deal with about 1,000 people a day in the summer," said Ted Pallas, a year-round island resident who works for the town's solid waste and recycling center. "I love how in the winter, you can shoot a rifle down Main Street and not hit anybody."

Not that he'd actually do that, Pallas quickly added, though he does like knowing that he could, should the mood strike.

He was joined by several friends and acquaintances at the Bell Street Tavern, the only island business that was open New Year's Day, and the only bar in the community that consistently stays open through the winter. Many lamented the fervor with which they'd approached the previous night's celebrations, which had been held, of course, in the very same spot.

Chelsa Nelson, 23, is a former resident of La Pointe and Bayfield who now lives in Duluth and came back to work at Bell Street over the holidays. She characterized the island's slowed-down winter pace as more conducive to community building than its frenetic, tourist-soaked summer scene.

"It's a very different mentality in the winter than in the summer," she said. "When this is the only place open, the entire community is in one place; you associate with everybody. In the summer, everyone's so busy and there's so many people here that you don't.

"The community kind of comes back together in the winter."

La Pointe resident Scott Grabarek seemed content to stay close to the island for the time being; as a money-saving measure, he doesn't take the ferry that often anyway, he said.

"Contrary to what everybody thinks on the mainland, not everybody over here are millionaires," he mused.

Logistically, it could be a little tougher for people to get their basic needs met on the island this year, Grabarek said. Last fall, he and Chelsa Nelson said, someone drove their car through the community's sole grocery store, rendering the shop inoperable over the winter.

To deal, Grabarek loaded up on rations when he visited relatives over Christmas, and he hopes his stockpile will last him until the ice road materializes.

Others like Pallas said that when grocery shopping calls, they would eschew the windsled in favor of snowmobiling to the mainland.

"I feel more freedom, and it doesn't cost me 10 bucks; it costs me $2," Pallas said.

For some, the early cessation of the ferry's service is a welcome sign that the ice road will show up sooner than it usually does.

"If the weather keeps up like this, we'll have one of the earliest ice roads we've had in years," Grabarek said. "That'd be nice. That'd be really nice, because usually the earlier it starts, the longer it lasts."

Bayfield resident Dolly Schneeberger, who works at the Bell Street Tavern, took the last possible ferry home from the island Thursday.

As she stepped off the boat, the former island resident gushed over the prospect of an early arriving ice road and the mobility it will bring.

"This year, everybody's excited because, yay! We get to go back and forth without having to wait for a ferry boat," she said.

"Everybody's just excited to have an early ice road," she added. "It's freedom; it's freedom from the island."

Stormtrack.org

And finally, something I unexpectedly stumbled upon - a poll posted on Stormtrack.org (a site of devoted storm chasers).

A snowy weekend ahead.

2009-01-02T07:55:00.007-06:00

Gotta get back in the groove after the holidays: next snowstorm coming.

A winter storm will be moving our way this weekend, staring on Saturday and tapering off on Sunday. Already Winter Storm Watches cover the northern third of Wisconsin, as well as neighboring states.

This graphic (to the right) is from INFLOW-WI.org and shows where Watches are already in place.

The models have been coming into agreement over the last two days, but a few of the details may change a little before the snow actually starts.

How much & where?

NWS Duluth put this graphic together (to the left) that shows where they believe the heaviest snows will fall.

I fall squarely into the 8" or more category. The HPC puts the chance that I'll see over four inches above 70%, so regardless of what exactly happens, I'll have to get the shovel and snow blower ready.

This system will also affect the rest of western Wisconsin, include Polk County, where Derek will be updating snowstorm information on his blog - NW Wisconsin Weather. NWS Minneapolis is forecasting between 4 and 8 inches of snow for his area. A graphic showing their expectations can be found (here).

Good radar source.

And finally, I wanted to post a link to an excellent source of radar across Wisconsin. INFLOW-WI is a group of weather/ham radio enthusiasts who have created a website with many graphics and much information. Among the treasure-trove is online GRlevel3 radar data from the five radar sites covering Wisconsin. The link for KDLH's GRlevel3 radar page is (here).

Snow depth maps & an answer to TMIP.

2008-12-23T11:40:00.017-06:00

A couple of points I wanted to hit: a look at snow depth across the region, an answer to TMIP's previous question, and how Winter Weather Warnings have changed this winter.

I pulled two maps of current snow depth off Wunderground.com, one of the Contiguous US (to the right) and one of the Midwest (below).

I like the bright spot around western Lake Superior, which is more apparent in the second map.

I think it's interesting to note that the yellow and orange color depths correspond pretty neatly with NWS Duluth's county warning area. I also think that some of the depths are a little high.

Information about the maps indicates that this information comes from the Air Force each day. The information also states that snow depth is usually under-estimated in the UP of Michigan. Mustn't there be a way to correct this problem?

TMIP's question: How radar works for mountains? Only sometimes there are cores on radar maps...

I posted a blog on how lake-effect snow (and other weather phenomenon) can slip 'under the radar' (linked here). TMIP was wondering how the mountains affect the radar beams and how there are permanent voids of missing radar data.

As an example, I took this screenshot (to the right) from KMQT (NWS Marquette) today. There are several examples of these cones of silence in this radar image.

As old as the hills.

Actually, the answer lies in the hills north of Marquette's airport. From Google Maps I took this topography image (to the left) of the area north of KMQT. I drew three lines in where the three largest voids occur on KMQT's radar images.

Elevation profile along the void.

On the left is the location of KMQT and the right is a point I picked in the middle of the void.

KMQT is located at 1444 feet amsl.

At 10 nautical miles (8.7 miles) the lowest radar beam is 510 feet above the elevation of the radar dome... 1444+510 = 1954 ft.

By connecting all the dots I got this image (to the right). By looking at this profile, it's easy to see why some areas are devoid of radar echoes.

Another look.

I found this graphic (to the right) from the AMS Online Journal - Volume 17, Issue 4, Augsut 2002 (linked here).

It shows the same idea - a hill or mountain blocking radar data.

This problem is encountered throughout much of the western U.S., with many mountain peaks and ranges above 5,000, not all the U.S. is covered by the same quality radar.

U.S. Radar Coverage Map.

There are several of these maps on the internet, I found this one (to the right) from the same AMS Online Journal as the previous graphic.

The darker shading, found mainly in the inter-mountain West, indicate no radar coverage below 10,000 feet above radar level. Closer to home, a close inspection of the map will reveal that northern Minnesota has an area that is not covered adequetly by base refectivity scans.

New Changes Occurred to Winter Weather Warnings and Advisories.

I'm not sure this story got any news coverage, though it was in the headlines of the NWS Offices this fall.

Certain types of Advisories and Warnings in the past have now been changed so that more winter weather will simply fall under one category -- Winter Weather Advisory or Winter Weather Warning.

Of course, some things haven't changed: Freezing Rain, Wind Chill, Blizzard, Ice Storm.

However, these will now be under one Warning: Sleet, Heavy Snow, Blowing Snow.