AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
131 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2008
UPGRADED TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES.
DISCUSSION... CONFIDENCE INCREASED TO WARRANT A WARNING...FOR LOCALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS IN
THE GOGEBIC RANGE. AS WITH MOST LAKE EFFECT EVENTS...AMOUNTS WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH
MANY AREAS SEEING FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES...BUT WITH IMPRESSIVE INVERSION HEIGHTS...DECENT LIFT IN
THE DENDRITE PRODUCTION ZONE...LIMITED SHEAR...AND EXCELLENT DELTA T`S AND LAKE INDUCED CAPE...
A FEW SPOTS FROM MELLEN TO HURLEY TO GILE...SHOULD SEE 6 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE WARNING PERIOD.
The NWS believes the area I circled in red could see up to 9" of snow by the time
this snow event winds down Monday evening. Their discussion indicates that enough
variables will come together overnight to efficiently produce heavy snow off Lake
High terrain along the south shore.
In an earlier post I mentioned
how some locations reach an
elevation of up to 1900 feet
above mean sea (amsl).
Compared to the elevation of 600
feet amsl of Lake Superior, this is
a rise of 1300 feet in a short distance
from the shoreline.As the winds blow
south across the warmer water of
Lake Superior, moisture is picked up
into the atmosphere. The cooler
temperatures and high terrain of inland
locations are able to condense the
moisture quickly so that heavy snow
can be produced.
This picture (to the right) is
the view from my yard across the
valley this afternoon.
Light snow showers have brought
a trace of snow granules so far
as a weak low pressure system
rotates through the region on its
journey to the southeast.
Labels: Lake Effect Snow Warning, Lake Superior, pictures30. 31.