29. Winter Storm and Blizzard Watches posted this morning for Thursday night and Friday.
This first map (to the right) is from NWS Minneapolis' Weather Story and shows the expected path of the low pressure system heading our way the next two days. It's not a perfect path, but close enough to call it a Panhandle Low.
Embedded in the forecast map is the snowfall forecast for central Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
Water, water, everywhere...
This second map (to the left) is from the HPC and shows the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) map for the next several days.
It's easy to see the large swath of red on this map, meaning over 4" of rain is expected from southern Lake Michigan down to the Red River of the South. They've been having terrible flooding and simply do not need any more problems.
We do not have as much forecast for us, but we do have a relatively large amount of liquid precipitation forecast for northern Wisconsin (up to 1.81" of liquid). Temperatures are expected to remain cold enough over the Lake Superior region, meaning that it looks like whatever falls from the sky will be in the form of snow.
Probabilities of snow amounts.
This third map (to the right) is from the HPC and shows probabilities of receiving at least 4" of snow and at least 8" inches.
A large area has a good chance of receiving over 4" and a large chunk of northeast Minnesota and far northern Wisconsin could see 8" or more.
Details will be tweaked over the next two days, but Watches are beginning to be issued.
This map (to the left) shows Watches that have been issued from NWS Duluth concerning the snowstorm on Friday.
Blizzard Watches have been issued for far southern St. Louis & Carlton (MN) and Douglas (WI) counties for up to foot of snow with winds gusting up to 40 mph off Lake Superior.
Winter Storm Watches have been issued for the rest of northern Wisconsin and parts of northeast Minnesota.
The forecast amount of snow will likely be changed a bit in the next two days, but it looks like at least 6 inches is likely.
10 to 14 inches across northern Wisconsin?!?! Are they bumping it up a notch? What happened to 6 to 12 inches? That wasn't enough??
I will try to be patient while I wait for the afternoon discussion, I'd like to know what their current thinking/reasoning is!
Now we need to watch how the expected amounts change over the next few days. More snow? Less? More? More?
We will also have to see what the surround NWS Offices are thinking and if they begin issuing any Watches today or tonight. Snow across northeast Wisconsin last night.
Here is a screenshot this morning from Oshkosh on OSNW3's weather webcam. On the fresh snow I see footprints and a missing snowboard :) As well as some puddles in the backyard across the fence.
I know rain and snow moved across eastern Wisconsin last night, but from the look of things, some of the rain turned over to snow in the Fox Valley. Farther north it looks like precipitation began and ended as snow.
Snow amounts overnight.
The map (to the right) is from NWS Green Bay's Coop Observations and shows how much snow fell across the region overnight. It looks like Florence received the highest amount in Wisconsin (6.3" snow) and up to 8" of snow is reported on the ground across central locations of the UP.
We had a chance for a little snow from this system across the south shore of Lake Superior in northern Wisconsin, but the snow didn't make it far enough west to hit us last night. However, I did get a light coating of freezing drizzle.