29. Another snowstorm looks possible by the weekend. It's a few days away, but definitely worth keeping an eye on!Northeast Wisconsin getting the snow tonight.
Between looking at the snowfall total maps I posted today and yesterday (the previous two posts), and reading NWS Duluth's morning discussion, I'm getting a feeling of nausea from a possible storm system on Friday.
This map (to the right) is from the HPC and shows the forecast surface map for 7:00 on Saturday morning. Centered over southern Wisconsin is a sub-1000 mb low pressure with a tight pressure gradient to the north and east.
Models are not in good agreement with the exact path of this system, but it certainly looks threatening enough to watch very closely. Some one may see high snow totals by Saturday evening... and there's a good possibility it might be me!!
"THE STORM WILL INGEST LARGE QUANTITIES OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AS IT INTENSIFIES AND TRACKS VERY SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT."
Okay, so it looks like the Gulf of Mexico will be open and this system will be able to bring quite a bit of moisture northward.
This map (to the left) shows the HPC's QPF map during the time frame this system could impact us. I'm leaving "what-if's" in my statements because this system is four days away and things may change between now and then as the models strive to produce a clearer image on what will happen.
If that bullseye of liquid across central Wisconsin can fall as only snow, a snow-to-liquid ratio of 10:1 would give us 13.6 inches of snow. While that number might be aiming high - there's no guarantee it would all fall as snow - it's a good place to begin aiming.
"THE STORM LATE LAST WEEKEND TRACKED VERY CLOSE TO DULUTH...DUMPINGITS 2 TO 2 1/2 FEET OF WET SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF DULUTH.
THIS COMING STORM WILL BEIN AN OPTIMAL POSITION TO DUMP SUBSTANTIAL QUANTITIES OF SNOW ALITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST...ACROSS AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE SUPERIOR... INCLUDING THE DULUTH AREA AND MOST OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN." The map I threw together (to the right)graphically shows what NWS Duluth is talking about. The area I circled saw snow totals over 20 inches.
"THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON ACTUAL CONDITIONS. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS CONTINUING TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION VERY CLOSELY."
Once the models start agreeing on some details, and the image becomes clearer on the exact path of this system, it's strength, and precipitation type, the NWS Offices will begin the process of issuing any Watches that may be necessary. With some luck, we'll begin to get the clearer picture tomorrow.
More snow for Wisconsin in the meantime...
A quick low pressure will bring a heavy shot of snow to northeast Wisconsin this evening and overnight. It's a narrow band of heavy snow, so only a small section of the state will be impacted. The UP of Michigan will also see hefty amounts.
This map (to the left) shows the counties with Winter Weather Warnings and Advisories from NWS Green Bay.
A Heavy Snow Warning is in effect for Florence, Forest, northern Marinette, northern Oconto, Langlade, and Shawno counties for up to 8" of new snow. Surrounding counties will likely see 2 to 4" by tomorrow evening.