29. Warm today, more tomorrow, next system Wed or Thursday.
As twilight ended yesterday evening I snapped this photo of the moon (to the right) at 19:32. It's currently about 10% of full, the next full moon is on March 21 at 13:40 -- the day after the Spring Equinox (March 20 at 0:48).
Two days of sunshine, then some clouds and precipitation.
The NWS forecast for my location in northern Wisconsin calls for 32 degrees and mostly sunny today, 34 and partly sunny tomorrow, and then a chance of rain on Wednesday before a chance of snow on Thursday.
This map (to the left) is from the HPC and shows forecast precipitation amounts for Day Three: 7:00 Wed through 7:00 Thur. The computer models are showing that up to 0.17" of liquid could fall across NW WI.
Rain or snow?
Maybe a little of one and then the other. If 0.17" of liquid does manage to fall from the sky, and if it was all snow, we could be looking at between 1.7 and 2.55" of snow (with a ratio between 10 and 15:1). However, in the beginning of the system, temperatures will most likely be above freezing - giving us a chance of light rain on Wednesday afternoon/evening. By Thursday temperatures will be a little cooler, so whatever falls from the sky would be snow.
This map (to the right) shows probabilities of 4 (or more) inches of snow on Day Three. At the moment, the blue circle across the western Great Lakes indicates that our chance for 4 inches of snow is between 10% and 39%.
Between 10% and 39%... what does that mean?? It means that our chances are very low that we will see as much as 4 inches of snow. However, it also means that we will probably see some snow, otherwise the probability would be 0%.
To wrap it all up, it looks like light rain showers or sprinkles Wednesday afternoon, then a chance of snow before daybreak on Thursday, but amounts will probably be under an inch.
In the meantime, the sun an warm temperatures may reduce the snow pack a little, but I still have 17" on the ground, so we'll still have snow for several more weeks.
This is a picture (to the left) of my little furball, Amenti. Before I got a mouse-catcher in Zambia, I didn't like cats.