29. The models indicate there is no question: we will see some snow.
This chart (to the right) is the forecast temperatures for my location from the NWS in Duluth. The dashed lines are the average temperatures.
Today looks to be sunny with temperatures warming to freezing or just below. The forecast calls for our temperatures to rise the rest of the week, and we'll be close to average for this time of year.
Here comes the low...
The current surface analysis (1:00 CDT) shows a broad area of low pressure over the southern Rockies - from Las Vegas to Santa Fe. The map from the HPC (to the left) shows the forecast track of the low pressure, based on the clusters from the different models.
It looks like a low will emerge into the southern Plains Monday evening and continue moving to the northeast.
It still looks like Wisconsin will see between 0.25 and 0.5 inches of liquid. The QPF map (to the right) shows total precipitation for days 1-3: between 7:00 Sunday and 7:00 Wednesday.
The north may see all snow while the south will see all rain. A 10:1 ratio would produce 2.5 to 5 inches of snow, while a 15:1 ratio would produce between 3.75 and 7.5 inches. There is a chance that some thunder snow is possible across the north, the site to report thunder snow to the UM is here.
Models and discussions.
NWS Duluth is impressed at the NAM; the map (to the left) is a screenshot of the 12z NAM run this morning, for 48 hours from now - 7:00 on Tuesday. Here is a portion of the discussion from Duluth at 21:09 last night:
"THE 18Z GUIDANCE IS INTERESTING IN THAT THE GRID MODELS...AND ALSO THE FOREIGN MODELS... CONTINUE TO INSIST ON A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. INDEED THE NAM HAS ACTUALLY BEEN INCREASING ITS ALREADY SPECTACULAR SNOW TOTALS FOR THAT EVENT...WE ARE NOT YET INCLINED TO SWALLOW THE WHOLE PACKAGE."
The official stance. NWS Duluth's thoughts and caveat:
"Temperatures are expected to remain cold enough for all snow across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, with the potential for the snow to mix with sleet in central Wisconsin. Snowfall totals of generally 2 to 5 inches are expected for most areas at this time. However, bands of heavy snow, capable of producing up to 6 inches of snow, are expected to develop Monday night. At this time, the placement of the heavy snow is highly uncertain."
The map (to the right) is today's weather story from NWS Duluth. High temperatures today and possible snow totals Monday and Tuesday are plotted on the map.