1. 2. 3. Northern Wisconsin Weather: Severe chance tomorrow ? 4. 12. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 23. 24.

25. 26. Severe chance tomorrow ? 27. 28.

Just a short post to highlight some potential for storms, possibly severe, tomorrow. The SPC puts Northern Wisconsin squarely in the SLIGHT risk category. The clipped image to the right is the probabilistic outlook, indicating that there is a 30% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of any given point. Yeah, that sounds like pretty small chances, but it usually indicates there will be something interesting happening.

Round 1: Saturday morning

In this case, the SPC is indicating that Saturday morning there will be an overnight MCS (Mesoscale Convective System: A complex of thunderstorms which becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms) moving east out of the area and weakening. This first batch of storms may produce some hail.

Round 2: Saturday afternoon

Behind that, still in the warm zone (with the warm front to our north and the cold front to our west), solar heating will destabilize the atmosphere. That destabilization will allow supercells to form initally, with hail the biggest threat, maybe a tornado possibility as well. After the supercells, the storms should morph into a line and plow east, with wind damage the greatest threat.


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