1 Jan 2012 snow storm follow-up

I'm usually supportive of the National Weather Service, but lately I'm feeling a little disappointed. The NWS Office in Duluth often follows a snow event with a list of reports, often accompanied by a contoured map showing who received how much snow. It's also helpful in seeing how the forecast verified with reality.

Following the storm on Jan 1st, I did not find a finalized list, nor any map. In fact, the NWS in Duluth was mute. The neighboring office in Green Bay was no better (they cover some 'northwoods' counties in my area - Vilas, Oneida).

So, I did it myself from a combination of trained spotter, CoCoRaHS, and Coop reports. I'm sure more reports were sent to NWS Duluth but not listed online, I know my final storm report is nowhere to be seen. I apologize for the holes, but this map is the best I could come up with ((disappointed)).


The highest totals reported seem to be in the Penokee Range, 12 inches in Gile, and 10 inches in Montreal. These amounts match the pre-storm forecast perfectly.

Everyone else didn't quite make the forecast totals of 5 to 8 inches. There seems to be a wide swath of 3 to 5 inches, with Glidden reporting a localized 7 inches.

There were no reports from the hills of the Bayfield Peninsula away from the Lake, so I'm not sure how the forecast verified there.

Remote sensing from NOHRSC didn't pick up on a deep snow pack on the peninsula, but near large bodies of water it seems to under-estimate snow amounts.

And from modeled snow depth at 20:00 (local time) on January 2nd, it's really easy to see the Penokee and Gogebic Ranges. The estimate by satellite is over 20 inches on the highest peaks, which might be a little over-done, but then again, it might be pretty accurate.

After the storm I had 4.3 inches in Ashland, but now after a couple days of settling and sublimating (I measured a dew point of -5 yesterday morning), I measured 3.2 inches at my location this morning.

And then cold temperatures followed. With a fresh snow pack and some clear skies, radiational cooling, combined with some arctic air, allowed inland temperatures to plummet into the negative teens. Exeland (southern Sawyer County) reported -15 at 07:00. Many places in the high terrain and northern highland were well below zero too.

In the city of Ashland, I had -0.1, so it was my first night below zero. I count myself lucky that it wasn't colder, and that the wind was calm so there wasn't a windchill.

More confidence in Jan 1st winter storm

Some of the models are coming in to better agreement, enough so that the local Weather Service Offices upgraded the previous watches, and added warnings and advisories.


The exact location of the heaviest snow is still unknown, a small deviation in the low pressure can swing the heaviest snow band one direction or the other. So, as snow gets closer, the forecast will be fine-tuned.

Far western Lake Superior is under a Gale Warning, with wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph, with waves of 6 to 10 feet. 


In the more open waters of Lake Superior Storm Warning has been posted, winds of 44 mph with gusts of 56 mph are forecast. Waves between 17 and 25 feet are expected from the strong NW winds.

As of this morning, it looks like most of far northern Wisconsin will see up to 8" of snow. 


As the low pressure moves away on Sunday afternoon, winds will strengthen from the northwest, allowing lake-effect snow to move across the Bayfield Peninsula and Penokee and Gogebic Ranges.


With the snow from the storm system, combined with lake-effect snow, the higher terrain may likely see some totals over a foot. 


Forecasting exact snow amounts and locations is difficult, so the National Weather Service offices will be monitoring the situation and make changes as needed. The wind and the snow will likely make US-2, Hwys 13, 51, 53, and 63 difficult to drive on.

Winds along the South Shore will begin to pick up Sunday morning, with gusts of 35 mph throughout Sunday and Sunday night. It won't be until Monday morning that the winds begin to subside. 


I took a screenshot of the forecast winds at 16:00 on Sunday, 1/1/2012. 


A couple things stick out... Des Moines Weather Service seems to be forecasting higher winds than their neighboring counterparts, while Duluth Weather Service & Marquette Weather Service are under-forecasting the winds compared to their neighboring offices. 


Regardless, wind gusts between 35 and 40 mph are likely across the entire region during this storm. These winds will make any snow blow and drift, compounding the difficulty of the storm.

Winter Storm possible for the New Year

The National Weather Service in Duluth has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the lakeshore counties of Wisconsin starting late Saturday night. 


Farther east, the National Weather Service in Marquette has issued a Blizzard Watch for the same timeframe.


A Winter Storm Watch means:

"THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF  SNOW THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL AND COMMERCE."

The Watch can be upgraded to a Warning (meaning that a winter storm is imminent), downgraded to an Advisory (snow will be likely but should not be too serious), or the Watch can be canceled if severe weather is no longer expected for the area. 

The exact location of the heaviest snow is not yet known, but the high terrain of the Bayfield Peninsula may receive up to 6 inches, with more possible in the Penokee Range of Ashland and Iron counties. Lower elevations and areas near Lake Superior will see less. 


Wind may also be an issue, starting to increase New Year's Eve from the northwest, reaching up to 20 mph by Sunday afternoon. Gusts of 30 mph are possible with even higher winds over the Apostle Islands, eastern in the Upper Peninsula, and the open waters of the Lake.


Even without heavy snow, the wind may cause blowing and drifting across roadways. Local road conditions and reported incidents are always available on the Wisconsin DOT's website (linked here), make sure "Incidents" and "Road Conditions" are checked.

First snow storm:  

Dec 26th winds

The National Weather Service in Duluth, MN didn't say anything about the strong winds Monday afternoon. In fact, by calling for wind gusts only up to 30 mph, they blew the forecast (pardon the pun).

I compiled a list of the highest wind gusts measured across the Northwoods and plotted them on a map (to the right).

The highest wind gust I found was 47 mph at Ashland's airport. The site has open exposure on a hill top, so naturally the open areas will feel the wind more than a location at a lower elevation or surrounded by forest and hills.

Windy enough for a Wind Advisory?

The threshold for issuing a Wind Advisory is listed as:  "sustained winds are forecast between 30 and 39 miles per hour, or gusts ranging from 45 to 57 miles per hour".

For a brief period of time, the open fields south of the city of Ashland probably met Wind Advisory criteria. But it was only a couple of hours and I think the winds caught the Weather Service off guard, these wind speeds were not in the forecast and NWS Duluth didn't acknowledge the event.